Pressure probability Next Gen Stat

Heading into Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season, the NFL and AWS have revealed the latest Next Gen Stat that will be featured in coverage across the league.

The stat is called “pressure probability” and aims to quantify pressure from a pass rusher on a quarterback.

Here’s an explainer video from AWS.

A blog post on the NFL’s website further explains pressure probability. It explains the stat “(1) identifies blockers and pass rushers on every pass play, (2) quantifies the evolving dynamics of pressure and (3) detects all individual blocker-rusher matchups.”

Pressure probability will also generate 13 different metrics that can be tracked, including pressure rate, pressure time, and average pressure probability.

In addition to being able to quantify a pass rusher’s abilities, pressure probability will also help evaluate offensive linemen. The metrics pressure probability will measure for offensive linemen include matchup frequency and pressure rate allowed.

I appreciate the look under the hood at how a new stat like pressure probability comes to be, and how metrics associated with the stat also begin to get used.

So if you start seeing pressure probability or related metrics popping up on NFL game broadcasts this weekend, you haven’t been living under a rock. This really is a fresh new stat that we’ll probably be seeing a lot of over the rest of the season.


About Joe Lucia

I hate your favorite team. I also sort of hate most of my favorite teams.