Are older viewers and conservatives really cutting back on NFL viewing?

One of the big arguments about declining NFL ratings has been the role, if any, anthem protests have played. There have been plenty of hot takes suggesting people are turning away thanks to those protests, but the NFL’s said that doesn’t match their data, and there’s been other data saying it’s not less people watching, but the same people watching less time on average (which disputes the idea of a boycott).

Now, those looking to blame the viewership drop on anthem protest backlash have some new ammunition thanks to a survey, but there are reasons to question that survey’s data.

The survey in question was conducted of 2,088 people by Morning Consult. As Joe Flint writes in The Wall Street Journal, its findings suggest larger drops amongst older people and those who identify as conservatives:

Year-over-year viewership has declined more for people over 45 years old than people 18 to 45. Some 24% of respondents 45 to 54, for example, said they are watching some or much less football this year, compared to a 16% drop for people 30 to 44.

Interest in the election certainly played a part in keeping viewers away from the games. The survey, done earlier this month, found that 16% of respondents were somewhat or much less likely to have watched football because of election coverage including debates.

As for political leanings, conservatives are watching less football this season compared to last season versus other political groups. Some 28% of conservatives said they were watching some or much less NFL, versus 20% for moderates and 16% for liberals.

However, all of this data should be taken with a grain of salt; Flint goes on to note that the survey didn’t ask if anthem protests were a factor and didn’t specifically explore why these viewers were watching less NFL content. Interestingly enough, older respondents cited a desire to watch more political coverage less frequently than younger respondents.

It’s also worth pointing out that this is based off people’s responses rather than measured viewing data, which opens up the chance of inaccuracy (some might say they’re watching less but not actually doing so), that it’s based on a very small sample size (especially when you further subdivide 2,088 respondents by age and political affiliation), and that the “older people are watching less” argument doesn’t fit with the Nielsen data Jason Clinkscales discussed here earlier this year, which suggested the adults 25-54 demographic had actually declined the least both year-over-year and relative to 2013:

The gist of the chart is that viewership is down 15%, 13%, and 11%, respectively versus a season ago. With slight fluctuations, however, the ratings have slipped some since 2013, which very well may be the NFL’s peak season for television ratings. In fact, among the adults 18-34 group, current viewership versus the 2013 season is down 24% while also down 18% among adults 18-49 and 15% for adults 25-54.

Both of these things can still be right; the older people in the Morning Consult survey may well be watching some or much less NFL (and it’s worth noting that said survey subdivides further, going from 45 to 54 rather than the Nielsen 25-54), and while the younger people in that survey may not be watching as much less, younger people in general can still be.

That survey does have some other interesting points, too, such as 22 per cent of respondents saying they’ll only watch Thursday Night Football if their favorite team’s involved, as compared to the 17 per cent who only watch Sundays involving their favorite team. There’s also nothing wrong with seeing this survey as a data point in the analysis of what’s gone wrong with NFL ratings. It should be kept in mind that it’s not a very big sample, though, and it should be compared with the other ratings data we have, not seen in isolation.