By any measure, Tyreek Hill is having a spectacular 2023 season. So much so that the Miami Dolphins wide receiver has become the rare non-quarterback to generate MVP buzz.
Through seven games, Hill has amassed 53 catches for NFL highs of 902 yards and seven touchdowns. That puts the four-time All-Pro on pace to set a new single-season receiving yards record with 2,191 yards, which would make him the first player in NFL history to eclipse the 2,000-yard receiving yards mark.
Not everybody, however, appears to be impressed with Hill’s standout season. After ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder tried to explain why the Dolphins star only ranks 32nd in ESPN’s yards after catch (YAC) metric, his colleague, ESPN senior analytics specialist Brian Burke, took the explanation a step further, stating that Hill’s lower than expected score is a result of the Dolphins’ scheme.
“Seth is correct here, but I suspect the bigger factor is scheme. Hill plays in a scheme specifically designed for him to get gobs of YAC,” Burke, who founded Advanced Football Analytics and has been with ESPN since 2015, wrote.
Seth is correct here, but I suspect the bigger factor is scheme. Hill plays in a scheme specifically designed for him to get gobs of YAC…
— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) October 25, 2023
Burke continued his explanation by pointing out that Hill’s lack of broken tackles and the accuracy of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa likely suppressed his score. But his most curious post came when he called the seven-time Pro Bowl selection “one dimensional” before adding that he doesn’t believe that he’d be one of the top 10 wide receivers selected in a re-draft.
“I think Hill is great, but somewhat one dimensional,” he wrote. “He’s a great fit for KC and now MIA, but he’s not a [Stefon] Diggs or [Justin] Jefferson or AJ Brown. He’s in a great situation. If teams could redraft all the WRs I doubt very seriously he’d be taken in the top 10.”
I think Hill is great, but somewhat one dimensional. He's a great fit for KC and now MIA, but he's not a Diggs or Jefferson or AJ Brown. He's in a great situation. If teams could redraft all the WRs I doubt very seriously he'd be taken in the top 10.
— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) October 25, 2023
While one could argue where Hill fits into the hierarchy of the NFL’s top tier wide receivers, it’s hard to imagine that anyone would actually believe that he doesn’t belong there. Regardless of the schemes he’s played in or the quarterbacks he’s played with, the 29-year-old’s speed alone changes the dynamic of the the offenses he plays in, in a way that’s reminiscent of the effect that Stephen Curry has with the Golden State Warriors.
What’s more is that Hill isn’t just a “fast” wide receiver, as he’s currently on pace for what would be his third consecutive 100+ reception season. Are there wide receivers whose production are largely a product of their offenses? Of course. Hill just isn’t one of them.
As analytics become more prevalent in football coverage, this is where they lose a lot of people. Is it good to have context for what goes into Hill’s historical season? Absolutely. But to extrapolate some of that data into a claim as bold as him not being a top 10 wide receiver is where you’re inevitably going to lose a lot of people.
At a certain point, the results matter too. If your model doesn’t think a player as dynamic — and productive — as Hill is a top 10 player at his position, then it’s likely a problem with the model and not the player. Plus, based on Walder’s own explanation, the real disconnect between ESPN’s analytics and Hill’s production seems to be that the wide receiver has set too high of an expectation for himself.
As one might imagine, many on social media — including some in the analytics community — were quick to respond to Burke’s take.
Not top TEN??
I…disagree. Strongly.
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) October 26, 2023
Tyreek Hill is one-dimensional in that the single dimension is him being arguably the fastest and one of the most prolific weapons in two of the best offensive schemes in the last 8 seasons
"one-dimensional"
— Kevin Tompkins (@ktompkinsii) October 26, 2023
That system is being the fastest man alive
— Thomas Sullivan (@Yfz84) October 26, 2023
Brian, a team literally traded more for Tyreek than they did for AJB or Diggs.
— Jake (@Parry_FF) October 26, 2023
Making ridiculous statements to defend a model with major flaws is not a great way to get people to take the model seriously.
— Deep to Moss (@ilikebigdecks) October 26, 2023
Hill is somewhat one dimensional… he has excelled with 3 completely different QBs and in 3 completely different offensss. Sir no offense but I don’t think you know what one dimensional means. https://t.co/h1iWr77vyZ
— Mike (@mikeyj2208) October 26, 2023
This is worse than the time ESPN analytics was arguing that Aaron Donald wasn't actually good because he performed poorly in their run stop rate metric.
Oh My God lmao https://t.co/Ga5IJWYARk
— Jonathan 🔥 (@JonathanNFL_) October 26, 2023
I think Jerry Rice is great, but somewhat one dimensional. He's a great fit for SF and now OAK, but he's not Ward or Harrison or Torry Holt. He's in a great situation. https://t.co/YOERt3jOd7
— Zero Drip (@Josh_ADHD) October 26, 2023
Might be one of those rare situations where this is truly the only person in the world that believes something https://t.co/DWXVG3k3id
— Jon Ledyard (@LedyardNFLDraft) October 26, 2023
For a brief second, let’s entertain that Hill is not as well-rounded of a route runner.
If that were the case, his speed/accel is so much a compensatory factor that I’d still have a difficult time accepting this argument.
But no, Hill isn’t Mike Wallace. https://t.co/slz9mBY0z3
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 26, 2023
Burke, for his part, seems to know that his take is a polarizing one. But that didn’t stop him from doubling down.
Honestly thought we were past the point of gaudy counting stats in week 7 without regard to scheme, coaching, teammates.
I was wrong.
— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) October 26, 2023
