The College Football Playoff has finalized their plans for 2026 as the sport continues to face upheaval and uncertainty following years of conference realignment and the inability for the powers that be to do anything about NIL, transfers, labor movements, and so much more. What we do know in the new CFP agreement is that the rich continue to get richer, those left outside continue to be pushed further to the margins, and we’re probably nowhere close to being done in the reshaping of college football.
With all that in mind, here are five takeaways from the new CFP deal that aligns with the new $8 billion ESPN contract and the signs that we’re just getting started.
1. The Power 2 are set in stone
The gap between the SEC and Big Ten and rest of college football has become as wide in the Grand Canyon in recent years. Now it might as well be the distance between the Earth and the Sun. The Big Ten and SEC are already making tens of millions of more per school in revenue thanks to TV rights deals with NBC/CBS/Fox and ESPN respectively. The Big Ten is projected to make about $60 million per school in TV revenue while the SEC is around $50 million. The Big XII and ACC are at around $30 million.
Now comes the CFP deal where the Power 2 will once again get a lion’s share of revenue. The Big Ten and SEC will each receive $21 million from the playoff, the ACC $13 million, Big XII $12 million, and just $1.8 million for Group of 5 schools. The deal states because it’s those two conferences have produced the most participants, but it’s also because they have the power to leave the playoff and do their own thing at any time. It’s clear that the two megaconferences now run the sport and the others are just fighting for whatever leftover scraps the Big Ten and SEC are willing to provide.
2. Is it put up or shut up time for Notre Dame?
Speaking of payouts, Notre Dame’s prize in the new CFP contract is at the Big XII level of $12 million. Given the Fighting Irish’s self-importance and ideas about their own grandeur, it must be a harsh reality that they are going to receive less money than Purdue, Illinois, and Missouri in the new College Football Playoff contract. With the new contract Notre Dame signed with NBC for $50 million per year, they aren’t doing too bad for themselves. However, it’s likely that the SEC and Big Ten revenue will continue to skyrocket in future years and Notre Dame will risk falling further and further behind by staying independent. While the CFP payouts aren’t near the total value of the regular season media deals, it risks making life even harder for a school that hasn’t won a national title since 1988 but believes it was 2018.
3. The Big XII is a big winner… for now
While $12 million might feel like the low end for Notre Dame, it’s unbelievable that the Big XII has been able to secure their own survival through this round of realignment after losing by far their two biggest programs – Texas and Oklahoma. As the new CFP deal indicates, the Big XII is a notch below the ACC at $12 million because they only have one current school (TCU) that has ever made the playoff. But… it’s just a notch. Compare that to the former Pac-12 that could have boasted Oregon and Washington and also USC. The Big XII’s strongest selling point coming into 2024 might just be Deion Sanders so the league better hope Colorado holds their national relevancy for longer than the first month of the season.
4. Oregon State and Washington State are the big losers
While the Pac-12 dispersed to three of the four major conferences, including inexplicably the ACC, the two schools left out were Oregon State and Washington State. While the Beavers and Cougars try to sell some vision of a resurrected Pac-12, it may quite literally be too little too late. Their payout from the CFP contract is only $360,000 as independents, barely a fraction even of what Group of 5 schools are earning and a severe paycut from the previous contract with the Pac-12.
According to sources, Washington State and Oregon State are expecting to receive $360,000 each per year in the new contract – 1/5 of the $1.8 million Group of 5 schools would each make. Historically, they received between $6-7 million per school as members of the Pac-12.
— Heather Dinich (@CFBHeather) March 15, 2024
Surely this is a signal to them to link up with a conference, any conference, and soon.
5. None of this is sustainable
The income inequality in major college football is only going to get more and more severe as the months and years go on. And even the whole thing structure of college football now is a house of cards as the future of Florida State hangs in the balance. If the Seminoles are able to exit the ACC for the greener pastures of the Big Ten or SEC, it could lead to the vultures coming to scavenge the remains of yet another former power conference. And what happens when UNC or Miami or Clemson want to join the SEC or Big Ten? The whole College Football Playoff agreement will be ripped up and done again with even more power and more revenue for the haves and less for the have nots.
What does it mean? It’s all headed towards a Big Ten-SEC NFL style breakaway. It seems inevitable at this point. The current and future revenue at stake is just too big for anyone to resist. And whatever happens along the way are just pit stops before reaching the final destination.
