As we get deeper into the college football season and look at the teams who might fare well in the expanded College Football Playoff, teams with regular season wins over quality opponents will get a lot of attention.
To that end, Fox College Football’s X (formerly Twitter) account shared a list of teams with multiple wins over ranked opponents heading into Week 9.
Also included was the caption, “A ranked team would hate to see these guys coming.”
A ranked team would hate to see these guys coming 👀 🔥 pic.twitter.com/hu7Z0LZO8F
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 25, 2024
Looking at that list, something might seem a little off.
Of the 14 teams listed (Oklahoma and Michigan are listed twice), only Texas, Clemson, Texas A&M and Alabama are actually ranked in either the AP or Coaches polls heading into Week 9. Three teams on the list — Arizona, Oklahoma State and Kansas — head into Week 9 with losing records.
Of course, what Fox College Football’s list is conveying is wins over teams that were ranked at the time of the game. And from that perspective, the list is 100% accurate.
But while the list may be accurate, using those guidelines creates other issues.
One, it’s going to skew strongly toward teams with wins over traditional powers early in the season. Powerhouse programs like Michigan and Oklahoma generally get the benefit of the doubt early in the season, only falling out of the rankings after multiple losses.
Two, it creates a scenario where wins over the same opponent are not counted the same. For example, BYU’s win over Oklahoma State is not counted, while Kansas State’s win over Oklahoma State is.
Finally, can we really say that Illinois’ Week 2 win over Kansas (presently 2-5) was more impressive than Oregon’s over Boise State (presently 5-1) on the same day? That’s just one of several examples.
If we’re trying to look at opponents that a strong team “would hate to see coming,” the current rankings are far more important than the ones in place several weeks ago.
[Fox College Football on X]
