Over a decade of continuous decline in the pay TV ecosystem has posed the question: Will the cable bundle ever bottom out?
In the early 2010s, over 100 million households subscribed to a cable or satellite TV bundle. That number is considerably lower now, estimated to be between 60 and 70 million according to recent figures. But a prominent Wall Street analyst now says there might be an end in sight.
According to Craig Moffett of the media research firm MoffettNathanson, the floor might finally be near. Per the analyst’s most recent report, as reported by Deadline, the rate of decline for pay TV subscriptions has improved for three consecutive quarters. In other words, while people are still deciding to cut the cord, they’re doing so at a slower rate. It’s the first time the rate of decline has slowed since pay TV subscriptions began to decline over a decade ago.
“Maybe, just maybe, we’re finding the long-imagined bottom for traditional pay-TV, where sports and news fans are all that’s left,” Moffett wrote.
That’s an optimistic view but one that’s based on logic. At this point, it makes little sense for anyone to purchase a pay TV bundle unless they’re interested in live programming, such as sports and news. And if you’re an avid consumer of those genres, a pay TV bundle is still the best bang for your buck. There is no clear cord-cutting alternative.
But bundle providers shouldn’t get too excited. Subscribers are still declining at a rate of approximately 12% per year. While that rate might be slowing, leveling off such a steep decline will take time, and a floor might be further away than it seems.
According to Deadline, the percentage of households that subscribe to a pay TV bundle is at levels not seen since 1987. Just 49.4% of households are currently in the bundle. Just 34.4% are subscribed to a traditional cable or satellite package (meaning about 15% access the bundle through services like YouTube TV).
No matter how you slice it, pay TV providers are not in an enviable position.
About Drew Lerner
Drew Lerner is a staff writer for Awful Announcing and an aspiring cable subscriber. He previously covered sports media for Sports Media Watch. Future beat writer for the Oasis reunion tour.