Analysts project pay-TV bundle will hit a ‘floor’ by 2030

The pay-TV bundle has been in free-fall for the past decade, but a group of prominent analysts is forecasting the declines will slow considerably within the next four years.

Analysts at the media research firm MoffettNathanson project that by 2030, the pay-TV business will level out after over a decade of precipitous decline. The firm claims that the pay-TV bundle will hold steady at about 50 million subscribers by 2030, about 12 million fewer households than currently subscribe to the bundle, and about half the number of households that subscribed to a pay-TV bundle at peak adoption, which was over 100 million. These projections include both traditional cable and satellite offerings as well as virtual alternatives like YouTube TV.

People have long been debating whether a floor for the pay-TV bundle exists and, if so, how many households will remain bundle subscribers when all is said and done.

Recently, data indicate that declines in pay-TV subscribers are starting to subside. Per a chart from MoffettNathanson, published by Business Insider, the rate of subscription decline for the pay-TV bundle has slowed in each of the last five quarters. In the first quarter of 2025, the firm estimates around 6.7 percent of all pay-TV subscribers canceled their subscriptions, a rate that had more or less held steady for three years prior. Since then, the rate of decline has improved to just 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2026.

That still means millions of households cancel their pay-TV subscriptions each quarter, but the bleeding is, at long last, slowing. That’s largely because most remaining bundle subscribers are sports fans. While non-live entertainment content has moved primarily to streaming, eliminating the need for non-sports fans to subscribe to the bundle, most live sports still air on traditional broadcast or cable networks. Assuming that remains the case, sports fans who want to ensure access to the widest array of premium live sports programming are best served by paying into the bundle.

The recent trend is also beginning to prove out a theory that some have held for years: sports fans are particularly sticky consumers. Few dedicated sports fans are willing to give up following their favorite teams or leagues and have therefore remained subscribed to the bundle despite entertainment-focused streaming alternatives.

If MoffettNathanson’s projections prove correct, broadcast and cable networks will remain viable distribution methods for live sports for many years to come.