World Cup Final could rival the NFL’s conference championships in U.S. viewership

The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final is just around the corner. It may not be the perfect matchup for U.S. television, but it will almost certainly still result in record-breaking viewership for Fox and Telemundo.

For grounding, the 2014 Germany-Argentina FIFA World Cup Final remains the most-watched final on U.S. television. The match averaged 26.7 million viewers across Spanish- and English-language television. Until the 2026 World Cup, it was also the most-watched men’s soccer match ever in the U.S. It should not be noted that these numbers are from previous Nielsen methodology that has since evolved to better count those watching via streaming apps or are watching outside of their home.

But that mark has already been easily surpassed by games during this World Cup, the vast majority of which featured the U.S. or Mexico.

Either of those two countries reaching the final, however unlikely, would have been an ideal matchup for Fox and Telemundo. That is not the case, with the matchup being Argentina-Spain, but not all is lost. So far, three matches not featuring the United States or Mexico have surpassed the former 2014 record. In the Round of 32, Brazil-Norway averaged 28.37 million viewers. In the quarterfinals, Norway-England and Argentina-Switzerland averaged 34.80 million and 29.95 million viewers, respectively.

Final viewership for the semifinals is not yet available. Preliminary viewership has Argentina-England on Wednesday, averaging 25.8 million viewers. Based on previous increases from preliminary to final viewership, that match will likely also surpass the 2014 record.

For Spain-Morocco, the preliminary audience is 21.26 million viewers. That figure is also expected to rise once the final English-language viewership is available.

Even in previous World Cups, the Final has consistently produced substantially larger audiences than the semifinals. In 2022, the semifinals averaged 11.03 million viewers before the Final jumped 130% to 25.32 million. In 2018, the semifinals averaged 7.95 million viewers before the Final increased 43% to 11.33 million.

With the final semifinal viewership not yet available, it is difficult to make a precise prediction.

Assuming final semifinal audiences finish roughly 10% above the preliminary figures, the two semifinals would average approximately 25.9 million viewers. As noted, World Cup Finals have historically drawn substantially larger audiences than the semifinals. Applying the midpoint between the increases seen in 2018 and 2022 (86.5%) would project the Final at roughly 48.3 million viewers.

That’s in line with Fox President of Insights and Analytics Mike Mulvihill’s thinking, as he recently predicted the game would average 46 million viewers.

That’s also about in line with the audiences for Mexico and the United States in their Round of 16 matches. Mexico-England averaged 44.94 million viewers, while United States-Belgium averaged 45.99 million.

For an American comparison, that audience would be in line with the 2026 AFC and NFC Championship Games, which averaged 48.6 million and 46.1 million viewers, respectively. Other than the NFL, very few television events in the United States reach that level of viewership.