Fox projects USMNT World Cup final could hit 50 million viewers

With the United States men’s national soccer team into the knockout stages of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Fox Sports has high viewership expectations for the rest of the tournament.

“The round of 32 game and the round of 16 game, if we are fortunate enough to get there, those are both primetime windows. I think both of those games can go over 30 million viewers,” said Michael Mulvihill, Fox president of Insights and Analytics, on The Colin Cowherd Podcast.

Mulvihill does not have as high expectations for the quarterfinals and semifinals, both of which will be in the afternoon window. But he still believes they can “approach 30 million.”

But if the USMNT were to make the final, which will also be played in the afternoon, Mulvihill believes viewership could average 50 million.

Those are lofty expectations. The deciding game of the 2026 NBA Finals, for example, was watched by 24.5 million people. The last NBA Finals game to average 30 million viewers was Game 7 between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors.

But the World Cup, especially in games featuring the USMNT, has already delivered extremely strong viewership. The opening United States-Paraguay match was watched by 27.5 million people in English and Spanish, higher than any NBA Finals game since 2016 Game 7.

Preliminary English-language viewership for the United States-Turkey late-night matchup, which is expected to rise when final numbers are released on Tuesday, averaged 15.9 million viewers. Final English-language viewership for United States-Paraguay was 18.0 million.

All eyes on FOX for the @USMNT! 🦅🇺🇸 📺

Per preliminary numbers, 15,856,000 viewers watched the Stars and Stripes’ final Group Stage match against Türkiye last night. pic.twitter.com/dyXCE0L8NR

— FOX Sports PR (@FOXSportsPR) June 26, 2026

Fifty million is slightly difficult to imagine. The most-watched NBA Finals game ever was 35.9 million viewers for Game 6 of the 1998 NBA Finals between Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls and the Utah Jazz. That level is more comparable to an NFL conference championship game.

The 2026 AFC Championship Game between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos averaged 48.6 million viewers, while the 2025 NFC Championship Game featuring the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams averaged 46.1 million.

The most-watched FIFA World Cup Final ever in the United States in 2022 drew 26 million viewers across English and Spanish broadcasts. Until the United States-Paraguay match this year, that was the most-watched World Cup match in U.S. history. Still, the USMNT would need a significant boost to reach an average audience of 50 million.

If the United States does not reach the final, Mulvihill thinks the best-case scenario for viewership would feature France against either England or Argentina. France-Argentina would be a rematch of the record-setting 2022 final.

With help from Nielsen’s changes to its methodology in the form of the new Big Data metrics, which have generally boosted reported live sports viewership by about 15%, in addition to strong early interest in the World Cup, Fox and Telemundo should be well on their way to a new FIFA World Cup viewership record—even if it isn’t 50 million viewers.