These are salad days for almost all live sports events as Nielsen’s enhanced Big Data + Panel methodology is boosting everyone’s overall ratings to new highs.
That is, except for pro wrestling.
Nielsen’s Big Data+Panel national TV measurement, which received accreditation this year, incorporates Nielsen’s usual randomly selected “panel” (with expanded out-of-home viewing) and proprietary numbers from streamers “at the device level.” It is Nielsen’s first attempt to work alongside streamers to measure viewership of live-streamed events from digital players more effectively.
These presumably more accurate numbers have helped boost ratings for the NFL, MLB, golf, and college football.
The pro wrestling world, however, has been moving in a different direction. While a ratings slump is typical once football season gets underway, both WWE and AEW are seeing their numbers drop like a rock. That’s especially true for AEW, which has seen all-time lows since the methodology was implemented.
“The new Nielsen methodology for television ratings is a disaster for pro wrestling,” Dave Meltzer recently noted. “While nothing in reality has changed, these numbers are going to be viewed over the long term with the conclusion young people don’t watch wrestling and that’s a very bad conclusion when the vast majority of revenue comes from television.”
Awful Announcing’s resident data expert, Drew Lerner, has been advocating for some time now that it’s time to stop focusing on ratings. He joined Ben Axelrod on the most recent episode of The Play-By-Play to break down Nielsen’s Big Data+Panel (which is a worthwhile discussion for anyone interested in understanding how it works).
During that conversation, they also discussed the decline in pro wrestling ratings. Lerner thinks there are only two realistic possibilities.
“The first thing you have to think about is, there is potentially just declining viewership in wrestling,” said Lerner. “Maybe people are just tuning out the product for quality reasons or just they’re tuning into different types of programming for whatever reason.
“But the other possibility, which this could reasonably be happening, is when you’re incorporating the Big Data, perhaps WWE and AEW viewers overindexed in the original panel measurements. If you’re thinking about the 40,000 households that have those Portable People Meters that are taking the audio signature of whatever they’re watching. Perhaps there’s an overindex of wrestling fans among that sample.
“Now, when you’re incorporating the 70 million connected devices, Nielsen is realizing, ‘Oh, there’s actually not as many wrestling fans or people watching wrestling as we originally thought from our original sample. So we’re actually revising those numbers down now that we’re incorporating the Big Data into it.’
“That has happened in certain occasions. I can’t say with authority that that’s what’s happening with wrestling viewership. But it’s a possibility when you’re talking about changing the methodology as Nielsen did.”
Axelrod noted that when Monday Night Raw initially moved to Netflix, the streamer’s viewership totals were lower than what the show might have expected on linear television, which may also be a sign that the second possibility is on track.
Lerner said that it’s hard to know how Netflix obtains its numbers since the methodology is kept internal, but the fact that they didn’t even fudge the numbers to make it look better indeed says something.
“It’s interesting because you think, if anything, Netflix would fudge the data around to make it look better,” he said. “I’m not actually sure how they’re measuring or if they’re measuring the average minute audience, which is what we’re getting from Nielsen, which essentially says, on average, if you take each minute of a broadcast, how many people are watching throughout the entire window. I don’t know exactly what Netflix’s numbers mean. I haven’t actually taken a look at those press releases, but you would think, if anything, they would be doing all they can to make it look more favorable compared to the linear ratings. So it is quite concerning for WWE that they wouldn’t be exceeding those numbers when they’re using the first-party data of Netflix.”
We’re still early in the data-collection process when it comes to Nielsen’s Big Data+Panel measurement, so we may see things even out over time for WWE, AEW, and other live programming that isn’t benefitting from the new system. However, as Lerner notes, it’s not a situation that bodes well.
“I’d be very concerned if I’m any live entertainment programming that is currently going down in the ratings.”
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About Sean Keeley
Along with writing for Awful Announcing and The Comeback, Sean is the Managing Editor for Comeback Media. Previously, he created the Syracuse blog Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician and wrote 'How To Grow An Orange: The Right Way to Brainwash Your Child Into Rooting for Syracuse.' He has also written non-Syracuse-related things for SB Nation, Curbed, and other outlets. He currently lives in Seattle where he is complaining about bagels. Send tips/comments/complaints to sean@thecomeback.com.