For the sixth consecutive year, the NFL competed with the NBA on Christmas. Last year, the NBA saw a significant viewership hit because of the NFL. But an especially weak NFL slate, combined with Nielsen’s Big Data measurement, could result in more eyeballs on the NBA from this year’s Christmas slate.
To be clear, the NFL will still crush the NBA on Christmas. No matter what anyone tells you online, even with illegal streaming, the NFL is light years more popular than the NBA. Regular-season NFL games average over 20 million viewers with regularity, while the last time an NBA Finals game surpassed that mark was in 2017.
Last Christmas, Ravens–Texans averaged 24.3 million viewers, while Chiefs–Steelers averaged 24.1 million viewers. Both games aired on Netflix. For the NBA, Lakers–Warriors was the most-watched game, averaging 7.76 million viewers across ABC and ESPN. The full five-game NBA slate, which aired across ABC and ESPN, averaged 5.25 million viewers.
The NBA is positioned to benefit from a relatively weaker NFL slate. Last year, all four NFL teams playing on Christmas ended up in the playoffs. This year, despite the addition of a third game, only one team will make the postseason: the Denver Broncos.
While none of the games were a blowout, the quality left a lot to be desired. The Cowboys held the Commanders at arm’s length throughout a 30-23 victory. The Vikings upset the Lions and ended their playoff hopes thanks to six Detroit turnovers. And the Broncos squeaked past the Chiefs in spite of Kansas City playing their third-string quarterback.
As for the NBA, all games again aired on ABC and ESPN, which meant the NBA was more accessible to casual viewers compared to the NFL. Cavaliers–Knicks featured a thrilling New York comeback victory to start the day and Timberwolves–Nuggets was an instant classic with Nikola Jokić going for the first 55/15/15 game in NBA history. In between, the NBA got to feature Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cooper Flagg, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Luka Dončić.
Even with NFL games to face, the NBA is likely to see Christmas viewership increases this year. The increase will largely be thanks to Nielsen’s new Big Data viewership metrics, which have consistently resulted in increased audiences compared to prior years. But the weak NFL slate should drive some casual viewers to the NBA.
Another benefit to the NBA, and one that will not be talked about as much, is the two streaming services required to watch the NFL. With both games on Netflix, viewers did not have to change streaming services to watch the games. That does not work when the third game is on an entirely different platform in Prime Video.
That being said, Big Data is still likely to result in increases for the NFL, even with its weak slate. The NFL has consistently proven to be just about the only thing on television that has not faced the effects of cord-cutting. Regular-season viewership is again reaching record highs.
Unlike in previous years, there was no college football or basketball on Christmas Day this year. The NFL and NBA have both set themselves up for Christmas increases. But while more people will watch the NFL, the NBA will earn the more significant increases.
About Manny Soloway
Manny Soloway is a Iowa based writer focusing on TV ratings. He is also the founder of the TV Media Blog substack.