NFL training camps are underway and we thought it would be a perfect time to catch up with Pro Football Focus‘s Brad Spielberger. Spielberger does Research and Development at PFF and is a salary cap analyst. He also makes regular appearances on the NFL Network. Awful Announcing spoke with Spielberger about a variety of NFL topics.
Note: This interview has been edited and condensed for length and clarity.
Awful Announcing: What training camp battle fascinates you?
Brad Spielberger: “I think there is this assumption in Indianapolis that we’re going to get Anthony Richardson right out of the gate. I don’t totally see why people think that— one year as a college starter, just turned 21. I think he’s going to be a good player. I don’t think he’s as raw as some people made him out to be. Shane Steichen didn’t just sign any backup quarterback. He brought the guy he was with in Philadelphia the last two years in Gardner Minshew. He played against Dallas on Christmas Eve and had 300 passing yards and a couple of touchdowns. I think that’s pretty fascinating. I think we’ll see Minshew for about a month, Let (Richardson) adjust, gather his footing, and then we’ll see a transition.”
What do you make of Mike McCarthy taking over the playcalling, especially since Kellen Moore had the second-highest scoring offense during his time as the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator?
“(The narrative is that) McCarthy is more about game management, running the ball, and defense. What’s funny there is if you look at McCarthy historically in Green Bay, he’s an aggressive player. He was in the top-10 in passer rate over expectation. He’s always trying to push the ball and score points. There are a lot of jokes about ‘Are they going to run it a ton? Is that going to impact CeeDee Lamb? I look at what they did and not their words. They added Brandin Cooks, who is still one of the better downfield threats. I think their offense is still going to be high-powered. I’m very high on Dallas overall. I think they could be in the Super Bowl. “
Are the Kansas City Chiefs thin at wide receiver?
“There is definitely some concern there. (Patrick Mahomes) has perhaps the best pass-catching tight end of all time. But if (Travis) Kelce goes down, I think it’s very, very thin. Kadarius Toney just got hurt. They say he (might) be ready for Week 1, but he’s always dealing with something. Skyy Moore got better over time, but for a second-round draft choice as a rookie, he didn’t show a ton. I did like (rookie) Rashee Rice, but I didn’t love him. Long answer short: How much can (Mahomes) mask? In the AFC Championship, his receivers were dropping like flies, and they struggled against a good Bengals defense.”
Is Brock Purdy for real, and what’s going to happen with the quarterback situation in San Francisco?
“Nothing against Brock Purdy, but Kyle Shanahan is the best play-caller in football. We put out our QB annual, we grade every single throw from every quarterback. The stat was: How many yards per attempt does each quarterback have when the grade is a zero? A zero means it wasn’t a good throw, it wasn’t a bad throw. The quarterback just did his job. The No. 1 quarterback was Jimmy Garoppolo. The No. 2 quarterback was Brock Purdy. No other quarterback was within a half-a-yard per attempt in those zero-graded throws. I think Purdy is solid. He took some risks last year that I don’t think Garoppolo would take, which I think is a good thing.
Let’s say Purdy can’t play for the first month. I think we see Sam Darnold start. They don’t dislike Trey Lance. I just don’t think he’s the player they thought they were drafting. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an injury, that they’re willing to trade him.”
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Who’s a player who had a bad season last year who might improve?
“It wasn’t a bad year, but I think we kind of underappreciated all that Justin Herbert was dealing with last year. Not only was he playing with broken ribs, but his left tackle Rashawn Slater did not play (missing the final 15 games with a torn biceps). Keenan Allen missed time. If Herbert can stay healthy with Kellen Moore, I think we’re looking at 5,000 yards and 40 TD passes. I think he could go nuclear if things break his way.”
Who’s a player who had a great season last year who might regress?
“Davante Adams is still an elite player. He may be the No. 1 wide receiver in football. I really do worry about Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo likes to attack the middle of the field. His average depth of target is pretty short. I just don’t know if he takes advantage of Davante Adams to the same degree as Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr.”
Of the new coaches who has the best chance for long-term success?
“I think DeMeco Ryans can do a lot for Houston. I think the defense has enough pieces. I like their secondary. They have some good young players in Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley. Then you drop in a Will Anderson. You get Sheldon Rankins. They’re going to struggle to win games this year. The offense is going to be a journey. But I think you’ll see that defense go from one of the worst in the NFL to average. That can be a foundation to turning this franchise around.”
What’s Aaron Rodgers going to look like with the New York Jets?
“Just like Herbert, I don’t think we appreciated how much (his thumb injury) was holding him back. Plus, injuries to David Bakhtiari and the receivers being so new. I think he’s going to look more like the back-to-back MVP years. But their schedule opens up Bills, Cowboys, Patiots, Chiefs. Three of those teams probably have top-7 defenses. I think he’s going to be great, but I think it will be a bit of a struggle out of the gate.”
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Who will be the most impactful rookie?
“I think Devon Witherspoon might be the final piece in Seattle. You look at last year’s team and they’re starting Mike Jackson. He was their No. 2 outside corner opposite Tariq Woolen. He wasn’t terrible, but he certainly wasn’t a plus. I don’t love their pass rush. But potentially having two lockdown outside corners, I think he could take this defense to the top 12.”
How often do people bother you with fantasy football questions?
“Someone from high school or college who I haven’t talked to in five years will text out of the blue. ‘Hey, Brad. Long time no chat. Hope the family’s good. So, anyway, I’m picking seventh overall in my fantasy draft…’ I don’t (mind). I’ll engage. But it’s always funny.”
Where do you do your NFL Network appearances from?
“It’s in my office. I’m fully remote here with PFF. My lovely wife thankfully got me the backdrop. I did the first month with a white wall. She said it was embarrassing not only for myself but for her. I’m from Chicago, so I have Cubs, Bears, and Blackhawks posters behind me.”
