Could 2024 defy the history of declining NFL ratings in a presidential election year when the league season commences next September?
Historically, ratings have dipped as viewers are stripped away by political news coverage.
“In every election year since 1996,” NFL ratings fall, Brian Rolapp, chief media and business officer, told Awful Announcing in October. “It’s like a pattern… maybe with how fragmented pay TV is now maybe that would dampen.”
The best example remains 2016, when Donald Trump surprisingly won the presidential vote over Hillary Clinton in a bitterly fought contest. After several years of rising ratings, the NFL endured an eight percent decline that year.
This is how The Atlantic described the decline then: “For years the National Football League has been the uncontested king of media in an age of fragmentation. But in 2016, it seems to have run into an even greater force for absorbing the nation’s attention: a presidential election, featuring Donald Trump.”
And in 2020, NFL ratings, again after several years of increases, declined 10 percent, though it must be noted playing before empty to near empty venues because of pandemic restrictions also dulled viewer enthusiasm for watching the games.
Early political news data suggests 2024 could be different however.
TV ratings for the cable news networks from the first two election contests of 2024 were each down notably. Coverage of the New Hampshire primary Tuesday night garnered six million viewers across linear TV, down from 8.7 million in 2020.
The numbers out of Iowa were even worse the week before, where only 4.7 million viewers tuned in, down 46 percent from 8.7 million. The whole political-media synergistic ecosystem appears in flux.
One doesn’t need to consult a media or political expert to discern the reasons. For one, Trump was, and remains, the runaway favorite to win the Republican nomination (he won Iowa by a record shattering 30 plus points), sapping all the drama. So much so the networks called Iowa for Trump before all the caucus sites closed. And there were only two real candidates in New Hampshire, a far cry from the usual half dozen.
But perhaps more importantly for the Fall when presumably President Joe Biden and Trump are squaring off, the public from all available polling detests both candidates and particularly this matchup. It’s like a bad movie airing a sequel: it’s going to bomb at the box office.
Throw in the fact that there may not even be debates. Historically when debates are scheduled against an NFL game or say the World Series, the rating for the sporting event suffers. But Trump has already pledged not to follow the debate schedule laid out by the commission on presidential debates, after boycotting all such encounters during the run up to Iowa. And meanwhile President Biden, given his frequent verbal foibles, is unlikely to want the usual three debates.
For what it’s worth, the first debate on the commission’s schedule is September 16, which would compete with Monday Night Football. The other two, and the vice presidential debate, would occur on two Wednesdays and a Tuesday, so not direct competition with the NFL.
“It’s the sort of thing that, you know, does consume some oxygen,” media consultant Ed Desser said of elections. “But what we’re seeing is that in the face of entertainment rating declines, sports is the exception.”
And that’s what Trump v Biden is, entertainment programming at this point. And like other entertainment shows, it is bound to sag in appeal.
“Quality of games and interest in the season-long storylines tend to drive interest,” Desser said. “And no doubt there are some people paying attention to elections. But if there is a ratings decline for the NFL it’s a minor blip and it’s transitory if it does, or does not occur.”
That is essentially Rolapp’s take. Even if NFL ratings decline, it is just a hiccup. “We also don’t obsess about it because it’s all about, it’s almost like a stock kind of, as this seems to be headed in the right direction. That’s kind of how we look at it.”
And that stock is sky high, as 2023 regular season ratings rose seven percent to an average of 17.9 million. And wildcard and divisional round games’ ratings have been stratospheric. The four divisional games over the weekend averaged more than 40 million viewers, with 50 million tuning in for CBS’ airing of the Buffalo Bills heartbreaking defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs.
