Chiefs-Cowboys Thanksgiving game should smash NFL viewership records

Thanks to updated Nielsen viewership standards, along with a high viewership ceiling Chiefs–Cowboys matchup, NFL games on Thanksgiving could receive record-high viewership this year.

Beginning Sept. 1, 2025, Nielsen transitioned the industry standard for viewership measurement from its traditional panel-based model to a hybrid system called “Big Data + Panel.” The new system adds viewership metrics from cable and satellite set-top boxes and smart TVs. In theory, this should produce more precise and comprehensive audience counts than ever before.

Top-tier football has already reaped the benefits of Big Data. College football games between Michigan and Oklahoma, along with those between Florida and LSU, saw viewership increase by 7% and 9%, respectively, thanks to Big Data.

Thanksgiving has always been a terrific viewership day for the NFL. The most-watched NFL regular-season game since 1988 was on Thanksgiving in 2022. A total of 42.1 million people watched the Cowboys against the Giants. However, in addition to the new Big Data standard, Nielsen has also increased the amount of out-of-home viewership in its numbers since then. That will be especially helpful for Thanksgiving, when many people watch the NFL at large family gatherings.

On paper, the NFL has scheduled one of the highest–viewership-ceiling games imaginable for Thanksgiving this year. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will take on America’s team, the Dallas Cowboys, at 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

As of Nov. 17, the Chiefs and Cowboys were part of eight of the ten most-watched NFL games this season. The most-watched game was the Eagles–Chiefs game on Sept. 14, which averaged 33.8 million viewers on FOX. Chiefs–Bills on Nov. 2 is in second place with 30.9 million viewers on CBS.

Last season, the most-watched Thanksgiving game was Giants–Cowboys, which averaged 38.8 million viewers on CBS. That was a 25% increase from the most-watched non-Thanksgiving game, Chiefs–Bills.

A 25% increase from Eagles–Chiefs viewership this year would almost exactly match the record 42.1 million viewers from 2022. But Cowboys–Giants does not hold the same weight as Chiefs–Cowboys. For one, the Giants were 2–9 going into the game. The Chiefs also have a major casual-fan factor. The Chiefs have participated in five of the last six Super Bowls, and did you know that the Chiefs’ star tight end is engaged to Taylor Swift?

It seems almost a given, then, that a decent Chiefs–Cowboys game will bring record viewership for the NFL and CBS. I anticipate that viewership could easily exceed 50 million viewers thanks to casual fans and Big Data. That doesn’t necessarily mean a huge number of new people are watching, though the population of the United States has increased since 2022, but it is still a meaningful record for CBS and the NFL nonetheless.

I also don’t anticipate Thanksgiving viewership records will be exclusive to Chiefs–Cowboys. The Packers–Lions will face off at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX. A matchup of two perennial playoff teams should also bring in big viewership, even before Big Data. I expect that Packers–Lions will come very close to matching Cowboys–Giants from 2022.

CBS has also scheduled a college basketball game as a lead-out program for Chiefs–Cowboys. Duke will take on Arkansas in Chicago at 8:00 p.m. ET. Barring a bad loss for one of those teams, it is very likely that the game will be a top-25 matchup. In a similar lead-out window last year, Illinois and Arkansas averaged 5.1 million viewers on CBS. With Duke replacing Illinois, and the Chiefs and Cowboys providing an even greater lead-in, I think over 7 million viewers will stick around on CBS.

While Big Data has been great for college football and the NFL, it hasn’t been great for everyone. Big Data has decreased wrestling viewership across the board. WWE SmackDown on USA Network has seen the most significant viewership decline, down 14% due to Big Data.

The CW, which airs WWE NXT, said in a statement to Wrestlenomics, “We’ve expressed to Nielsen our deep frustration with the way it handled the process, communication, and methodology behind its Big Data rollout.” They went on to call Big Data “fundamentally flawed.”

For the moment, however, much to the NFL’s delight, Big Data remains the industry standard for viewership. All signs point to record viewership for the NFL on Thanksgiving Day.