After months of assessing the prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft, it’s now time to evaluate the evaluators.
While it may not have the same prominence as fantasy sports or sports betting, the world of mock drafts has become a cottage industry of sorts with analysts competing with each other to produce the most accurate projection of the draft’s first round. But at the end of each cycle, there can only be one, with Peter Schrager’s final mock draft netting the highest HERC (Hypermetric Expert Rating Calculation) score according to MockDraftDatabase.com.
And with that, the only thing left to announce is the 2024 HERC Score Champion.
The most accurate Mock Drafter of 2024, with one of the highest HERC Scores ever of 52.5, your Champion is…
The one and only @PSchrags! pic.twitter.com/LchZDLFWRO
— The Mock Draft Database (@mockdraftdb) April 30, 2024
According to DraftAccuracy.com, HERC scoring “not only emphasizes extreme accuracy, but it finally brings measurable accountability to an industry filled with fair weather experts, diamonds in the rough, and talking heads dying to just be heard. Eliminating all of the ‘buzz words’ and ‘what ifs’ of the after-draft glow, HERC takes an entire industry and holds each expert equally to the mark of qualified measured effectiveness.”
For reference, Schrager’s final mock draft for NFL.com correctly predicted 12 team-player matches, albeit not necessarily in the draft position they were selected, as Schrager projected trades in his mock draft. After accurately projecting the draft’s first four picks — which many considered predictable — Schrager bolstered his mock draft bona fides by accurately forecasting J.J. McCarthy to the Vikings, Rome Odunze to the Bears, Bo Nix to the Broncos, Tyler Guyton to the Cowboys, Graham Barton to the Buccaneers, Darius Robinson to the Cardinals and Chop Robinson to the Dolphins.
Considering the increased emphasis that has been placed on mock draft accuracy in recent years, it’s notable that Schrager wound up with this year’s most accurate projections. While much of the draft industry consists of analysts focused on player scouting, Schrager is largely an information guy who uses his vast connections across the league to match teams with prospects.
That’s not to say Schrager is always right — he guaranteed the Rams would select an offensive player in the first round, only to see Los Angeles draft Florida State defensive end Jared Verse (which he owned). And the fact that most accurate mock draft only correctly predicted 12 of the 32 first-round picks shows how fragile even the best projections can be.
Nevertheless, it’s a credit to Schrager that he can claim the title of this year’s mock draft king, especially in a draft that was as unpredictable as this one. As for how some of the other notable draft prognosticators fared, The Ringer’s Danny Kelly placed sixth, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. ranked 10th, the NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah came in 26th and The Ringer’s Dane Brugler finished 33rd according to Mock Draft Database.
Meanwhile, this author scored a respectable 295th place finish. There’s always next year.
