The NFL Thanksgiving Day slate may be a bit underwhelming on paper, but there will be at least one storyline that sports viewership nerds will be paying attention to.
That’s whether or not the Detroit Lions can draw a larger audience than the Dallas Cowboys. Every year for the past ten years (and likely before that), America’s Team has out-rated the Lions each Thanksgiving. But with the Cowboys struggling and taking on the lowly New York Giants in a game that will feature two backup quarterbacks, along with the Lions being the odds-on Super Bowl favorite, Detroit beating out the ratings-darling in Dallas has become a distinct possibility.
Unfortunately for fans rooting for a ratings upset on Thanksgiving, a few factors are not on the Lions’ side.
For one, the Lions will be kicking off against the Chicago Bears at 12:30 p.m. ET on CBS whereas the Cowboys-Giants game is slated for 4:30 p.m. ET. The NFL’s late-afternoon time slot has long been the most-watched window in all of television, so the Lions kicking off earlier in the day, when it’s still 9:30 a.m. on the West Coast, puts them firmly behind the eight ball.
History is also not on the Lions’ side. Over the past ten seasons, Thanksgiving games featuring the Cowboys have drawn audiences that are on average 6.47 million viewers larger than games featuring the Lions. The closest the audiences have come during the last ten seasons happened in 2017 when the Cowboys captured only 1.54 million viewers more than the Lions. That season, both teams went 9-7 and missed the playoffs, but the Lions played a Minnesota Vikings team that finished 13-3 while the Cowboys played a Los Angeles Chargers team that finished 9-7.
Of course, the Lions are also up against it when it comes to the markets they’ll be competing against. Not only is Dallas the most-watched team year in and year out, but they’re playing the Giants, who bring with it the New York City media market. Of course, this is partially offset by the Lions playing a big market team themselves in Chicago, but the Giants’ presence will make this an uphill climb.
And as much as nearly everyone in the national media has written off the Cowboys, they’ve still pulled strong ratings even after starting quarterback Dak Prescott went down. America’s Team drew an audience of 17 million viewers for a blowout loss to the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football two weeks ago, and 24.61 million viewers for an even bigger blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles three weeks ago.
Even given the challenges facing the Lions when it comes to beating the Cowboys in a Turkey Day ratings battle, there’s still hope. They’ve come close in the past, even when the Cowboys were good. And with many picking the Lions to come out of the NFC and compete for a Super Bowl, there should be additional interest in this game.
However, that’s not enough for this writer to be convinced that more people will watch the Lions this year. I’ll take the Cowboys by 3 million viewers.
