Spurred on by a change-of-ownership clause in its broadcast rights deal with CBS, the NFL is trying to redo several of its agreements with other networks ahead of the 2026 season.
The league could see around a 50 percent uptick in revenue from Paramount-owned CBS, and those talks reportedly have strong momentum. But as seen in leaks from the Disney/ESPN camp last month, other networks not legally bound to reopen talks with the NFL may not be so willing to negotiate.
To meet its revenue targets by renegotiating these deals, the NFL will need to build leverage with the networks. In his latest appearance on the Marchand Sports Media podcast, Puck’s John Ourand expressed skepticism that the league can create the leverage it needs to wring top dollar from its broadcast partners.
The reason, according to Ourand, is the lack of a market for new bidders for the Sunday-afternoon packages on CBS and Fox, as well as pressure from Washington not to take games off those networks.
“The NFL has always, for as long as I’ve been covering this stuff, had the most leverage,” Ourand said, citing the dire fallout when CBS and NBC each briefly lost NFL rights during the 1990s and 2000s. “And the NFL has always used that leverage. I’m just telling you that what’s going on in D.C. right now with the antitrust exemptions, with the NFL sort of being in a bullseye … it’s a very consumer-friendly viewpoint.”
Brendan Carr, the chair of the Federal Communications Commission, has persistently cast doubt on the future of the NFL’s antitrust exemption, which allows it to pool teams’ broadcast rights and sell national packages to video distributors for television and streaming. Some federal lawmakers have also taken up the issue in recent months, and this week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Department of Justice is investigating whether the NFL has engaged in anticompetitive behavior around its broadcast rights.
As Ourand described, the issue is twofold as a political matter. The NFL abusing its antitrust carveout by striking separate deals with paid streaming platforms not only increases prices for audiences, but it also jeopardizes the financial future of local affiliate stations of Fox, CBS, and NBC, which rely heavily on viewership and advertising revenue from NFL games.
Yet Ourand also believes the NFL will struggle to conjure a legitimate alternative to replace these broadcast networks’ packages. He noted that YouTube does not yet have a sports production department, and that Netflix has not yet shown real interest in a hefty NFL slate. And again, even if a platform like YouTube made games available for free, Ourand believes the NFL could be reticent to move games from broadcast television to streaming, given the sensitivities around local stations right now.
The whole situation makes Ourand believe that while the NFL could very well strike new deals with all of its current partners in time for September’s season kickoff, it is unlikely to get all the money it wants.
“What we’ve always said is the NFL has never left a nickel on the table,” he said. “This time they might have to leave a nickel on the table.”
The NFL maintains that its distribution model is “the most fan and broadcaster-friendly in the entire sports and entertainment industry.” The league frequently notes that it continues to make all teams’ games available on free local broadcast television in their local markets.
Even if it ultimately defends its business practices before the federal government, the NFL clearly has a lot of legwork to do to convince its current partners to pony up on new deals.
About Brendon Kleen
Brendon is a Media Commentary staff writer at Awful Announcing. He has also covered basketball and sports business at Front Office Sports, SB Nation, Uproxx and more.