John Middlekauff predicts NFL Scouting Combine will be shut down within 10 years

The NFL Scouting Combine has, over time, become one of the premier sports events on the winter calendar. Tucked between the Super Bowl and March Madness, it helps to satisfy diehard football fans’ unending hunger for content.

But as an actual scouting proposition for NFL teams, it has become less and less important over time. Just this week, per an analysis by SB Nation’s Green Bay Packers site, Day 1 of the Combine had just a 37 percent participation rate for on-field drills.

The biggest headline from the week so far is that projected No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza (like many recent top quarterbacks) will not throw passes in Indianapolis. Many players opt for pro days organized by their agencies or college programs rather than the Combine to showcase their skills.

As the Combine becomes more important as a media property and less important for scouting, The Volume’s John Middlekauff is claiming the annual event could be shut down within a decade.

“This Combine could be in a little trouble, in terms of players might just stop going, let alone when they do go, they do nothing,” Middlekauff said this week on The Colin Cowherd Podcast. “And part of it is the league made it into a made-for-TV event. And now the players are like, ‘We’re not doing it.’ So it’s in a weird spot right now. It’s still important for the press conferences, the medicals, and some of that. But the on-field work, the Combine is coming down the stretch.”

Middlekauff, who hosts 3 and Out for The Volume, explained that NFL executives are frustrated by the lack of participation from first-, second-, and third-round picks. Even in the official meetings and interviews teams can book with players in Indianapolis, Middlekauff said, everything feels scripted to team officials.

Agents have become so good at projecting teams’ questions and preparing their clients that the 20-minute sit-downs have become less relevant. Teams seem to prefer the handful of official visits they can host with prospects over anything that happens at the Combine.

“If I spend five hours with you, it’s hard to fake some stuff,” Middlekauff explained.

“It was probably more genuine 20-25 years ago. I think now, with the 20 minutes, you can get some con men because they’re coached up on the outside. There’s so much more money. The difference in getting drafted 20th and 50th, you’re talking millions of dollars. So there’s just so much on the line.

“And yeah, I think the Combine, I think it’s in a little trouble, big picture. If I was a betting man, does it have over or under 10 years as currently constructed? I don’t know.”

For more than two decades, NFL Network has aired Combine coverage. In recent years, coverage has topped out with about a half-million viewers. Nothing that will break the bank for the league (or ESPN, when it takes over NFL Network), but solid for daytime cable television. The news, interviews, and clips that go out online generate even more engagement.

Perhaps that has come at the detriment of the Combine itself. As Middlekauff suggested, it’s unlikely the NFL would completely do away with the event. But we may be at a breaking point where changes must be made to preserve the Combine’s function as a scouting tool, even if it means worsening the TV product.