While a big part of the NFL’s popularity has been the way in which the league lends itself to daily sports talk debates, the rise of analytics has opened up a whole new set of subjects to discuss.
That includes the theory that “momentum” isn’t real, but rather, an abstract idea arbitrarily applied in convenient scenarios.
The debate regarding momentum is more than a decade old, with ESPN’s Bill Barnwell — then with Grantland — publishing a story titled “Nomentum, Part 1” in 2013.
“It’s time to put to rest the ridiculous notion that momentum exists (and matters) in the NFL,” the subheading on Barnwell’s deep dive reads.
In the time since, the concept of momentum in not just football, but all of sports, has been studied ad nauseum, with some insisting it’s real and others insisting it’s not — at least not in the context that it’s often used. You can officially put George Kittle in the former group, as the star tight end took time out of his postgame press conference following the San Francisco 49ers’ victory over the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday to question why anyone would think otherwise.
“I’ve got a question for you guys,” Kittle said, turning the tables on the assembled media. “Why does analytics people say that ‘momentum isn’t a real thing?’ I had that conversation with Pat McAfee. He was asking me, ‘All these people are telling me that momentum’s not real.’ And that’s just the biggest load of horse crap I’ve heard of in my entire life. But we move on. I digress.”
If ever there was a case for momentum existing, it may have been on Sunday as the 49ers overcame a 24-7 halftime deficit to defeat Detroit 34-31. Asked when he could feel the momentum in the game shifting, Kittle credited the home crowd before citing specific sequences that shifted the game.
“I think our stadium did a fantastic job,” the 5-time Pro Bowl selection said. “For some reason, playoffs at Levi’s (Stadium), it feels like there’s crowd noise being pumped in — it’s not — our fanbase is just phenomenal. We had a good opening drive out of the second half and that fourth down stop, you could just kind of feel an energy. We go down and score, ‘Alright this is huge.’ Turnover, I was like, ‘Ah man, all bets are off now.’ Bang bang.”
George Kittle says he doesn't know why some football analysts don't believe in momentum, then describes how the Levi's crowd helped shift momentum in the 2nd half pic.twitter.com/sHmU1IkIQY
— KNBR (@KNBR) January 29, 2024
While momentum skeptics would likely say that Kittle is merely applying a convenient narrative after the fact, it did feel like something was shifting in the game throughout the second half in real time. Conversely, what would have happened if Dan Campbell would have just kicked some field goals or if Josh Reynolds would have made a crucial catch? Would all of that momentum have been for naught? Would it simply not have been enough momentum?
When it comes to the concept of momentum, the reality is likely somewhere in between it not actually existing and it being the all-powerful force that many make it out to be. Add in the fact that it’s something that can’t be quantified and it makes it perfect for daily NFL discourse. Now we just need Michael Wilbon and Greg Olsen to weigh in.
