The fourth iteration of Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen: Playoff Edition is upon us.
Sunday’s AFC Championship game will feature another highly anticipated matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, with two of the NFL’s most electrifying quarterbacks set to take center stage. The game, which will kickoff at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS, could draw a massive viewership figure. But will it be enough to set a record?
The game has all the makings for a viewership record on paper. Last year’s AFC Championship game between the Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens is the current high watermark at 55.5 million viewers. That game kicked off at 3 p.m. ET, traditionally the lesser-watched window during Championship Weekend. Perhaps that means there is still room for growth.
But so far this postseason, viewership gains have been hard to come by for the NFL. Per Jon Lewis of Sports Media Watch, eight of the league’s ten playoff games so far this postseason have experienced viewership decline. Much of that can be attributed to an incredibly strong postseason from a viewership perspective last season, which makes further year-over-year gains difficult. If any game can buck that trend, however, it’d be Bills-Chiefs.
The two franchises have created quite the postseason lore in recent years. Sunday’s game will be the fourth time the two teams have met in the playoffs since 2021 and the second time they’ll meet in an AFC Championship game. There was, of course, the infamous “13 seconds” game in 2022. And last year’s all-too-familiar wide right field goal by Tyler Bass is certainly still fresh in the mind of many Bills fans. No doubt, people are excited to see what the next chapter in this new-age rivalry holds.
However, 55.5 million viewers will be a high bar to clear — though it is still within the realm of possibility. Last year’s Divisional Round game in Buffalo captured a record-setting 50.4 million viewers, not too far off from the AFC Championship record. A regular season bout between the two teams earlier this year drew over 31 million viewers on CBS, a huge total for a non-Thanksgiving regular season game. There is clearly a track record of interest when these two teams square off.
Given that a spot in this year’s Super Bowl is now on the line, it’s reasonable to expect improvement on last season’s Divisional Round number.
With the recent history between these two teams familiar to even casual football fans, it’s likely that this game will improve on last year’s record-setting AFC Championship game and go against the viewership trends seen so far this postseason. That holds especially true when considering the more favorable television window.
That said, it’ll be a modest increase that doesn’t crack the 60-million viewer mark.
The official Awful Announcing Championship Weekend viewership predictions: 58.4 million viewers for Bills-Chiefs on CBS, 54.2 million viewers for Commanders-Eagles on Fox.
