Bill Simmons used to, from time to time, bring out a character on his podcast named “Conspiracy Bill” who would float outlandish theories about the sports news of the day.
After his prescient preseason take on Patrick Mahomes’ fall down the pecking order of NFL quarterbacks, Simmons may have earned the right to call himself “Crystal Ball Bill.”
Mahomes being the league’s best quarterback is the type of sports media truism that gets cemented and then never challenged.
From the moment he made his first start in Kansas City, Mahomes was praised as the next coming of Steve Young or Aaron Rodgers, a mobile, whipsmart wunderkind who would win Super Bowls forever. He won MVP and Super Bowl MVP in 2018, his first full season as a starter. As the Chiefs’ dynasty developed with Mahomes at its center, he was often compared favorably to Tom Brady, Michael Jordan, and other sports GOATs. All before he turned 30.
Mahomes gradually stacked trophies and became untouchable. A debate show was more likely to jostle over his spot on the NFL pantheon than critique any aspect of his performance on the field.
Until Super Bowl LIX. The Chiefs did something in that game we quite simply never see the all-timers do: they crumbled. Mahomes had no answers for Philadelphia’s defense, and the game was over at halftime. Suddenly, Mahomes looked not only mortal but fallible.
When the summer ended, and Kansas City entered a new season with continual questions along their offensive line and among their pass-catchers, Simmons ambled to the microphone with significant doubts. Laying out his pyramid of the top QBs in the NFL, the Sports Guy knocked Mahomes down a peg, a move that seems perfectly defensible in hindsight but was so bold as to become a headline of its own back in August.
The new man at the top of the heap was Josh Allen, an equally impressive quarterback and reigning MVP, but also a man who had lost repeatedly to Mahomes. In placing Allen atop Mahomes, Simmons made a statement: The previously unimpeachable Chiefs star’s performance had dropped off so decisively that it was time to discredit his head-to-head advantage and track record over the league’s other top quarterbacks.
It turns out Simmons was spot on. The Chiefs are under .500 through 13 games for the first time under head coach Andy Reid, and are likely to miss the postseason. Top commentators continue to call out slight drops in Mahomes’ timing and decision-making. The two-time MVP has the lowest completion percentage of his career and is scrambling more than ever, both of which signal that he is hurried and unsure of himself.
As Simmons put it Sunday after another Chiefs loss (via a text message from Hollywood pal Mike Schur), Mahomes is suddenly in a position that almost none of his legend-status contemporaries ever were.
“In a couple weeks, Mahomes may do something Brady never did,” he wrote. “Play a meaningless football game.”
Setting aside the obvious Boston bias that might lead Simmons and Schur to move the goalposts in a way that puts Tom Brady over Mahomes, the sentiment shows just how far Mahomes has fallen. Even if you compare him to the rest of the league instead of his own incredible track record, he looks ordinary. The late-game heroics have disappeared, and his career is suddenly at a crossroads in year nine.
After a loss to Houston on Sunday Night Football in which blame could be squarely put on Mahomes and his three interceptions, the star’s decline is the talk of the media. Not that anyone thinks Mahomes is bad, but merely that he has looked human in a way we are not used to. Simmons’ colleagues are catching up to an inkling he had months ago.
To be clear, even as Simmons crossed the Rubicon and dinged Mahomes in the preseason, he tempered his criticism. All Simmons said was that Allen had taken Mahomes’ spot atop the NFL. And in defending the take in subsequent episodes of his podcast, Simmons said his questions were merely about whether Mahomes could make up for the fall-off of his surrounding talent and right the ship. Few would likely place him even as high as second among QBs after his showing so far.
Perhaps those were unfair expectations given the Chiefs’ roster. But even the idea of Mahomes being limited by his situation seemed impossible if you were to listen to NFL chatter the past decade.
The defining story of the 2025 NFL season so far has been the fall of Mahomes and the Chiefs. Simmons saw it coming and was purposeful in saying so, a testament to his continued ability to cut through the sports noise and lead the conversation.
About Brendon Kleen
Brendon is a Media Commentary staff writer at Awful Announcing. He has also covered basketball and sports business at Front Office Sports, SB Nation, Uproxx and more.