Is it time to start believing Aaron Rodgers will actually return this season?

The New York Jets faced the Las Vegas Raiders on NBC’s Sunday Night Football on Sunday night. And as has often been the case with Jets’ broadcasts this season, New York quarterback Aaron Rodgers was one of the primary topics of conversation.

During the second quarter of what was ultimately a 16-12 Raiders win, NBC’s Melissa Stark shared a conversation she had earlier in the night with Rodgers about his ongoing recovery from the torn Achilles he suffered during New York’s first offensive drive of the season. And while the four-time MVP didn’t throw pregame passes — as he has been doing in recent weeks — Stark revealed that he is now targeting a mid-December return.

“His goal to come back: mid-December. He said, ‘I know it sounds insane. But you do a good surgery, you have a good patient, it makes this possible.'” pic.twitter.com/fzESpa7Ste

— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) November 13, 2023

“He said he just wasn’t feeling it,” Stark said of Rodgers not throwing warmup passes earlier in the night. “He told me that he has been working on a weight-limiting treadmill jogging at 50 percent of his body weight. His goal this week is to increase to 75 percent. He said he can drop back, he can cross over. He just has to be able to get up on his toe. He has to get his heel off the ground to start running. His goal to come back: mid-December. He said, ‘I know it sounds insane. But you do a good surgery, you have a good patient, it makes this possible.'”

Predictably, social media was soon flooded with aggregator accounts sharing Stark’s report, as it marked the first time that the 39-year-old has put a definitive timeframe target on his return. But for as crazy as it was to see so many unchecked reports regarding what would be an unprecedented recovery, what’s even crazier is that it might be time to start believing Rodgers.

Conspiracy theories about his actual diagnosis aside, all indications appear to be that the 10-time Pro Bowl selection is progressing toward a return. While we’ll have to take him at his word about his treadmill work, we now have more than a month’s worth of evidence of him walking without crutches and throwing pregame passes, in addition to him openly talking about being back on the field by the end of this season.

While one could certainly accuse Rodgers of vying to stay in the spotlight — his one-sided feuds with Travis Kelce and Dr. Anthony Fauci this season say hello — the reality is that him putting an actual timeline on his return sets him up for success or failure. Either he’ll actually be back on the field later this season, completing what would be a historic and science-defying comeback at 40-years-old, or this entire ordeal will prove to be the dog and pony show that many have suspected it’s always been.

(The 4-5 Jets potentially falling out of playoff contention could also give Rodgers an out to say that he was ready to return but opted against it)

As for the likelihood of Rodgers making what would be a three-month recovery from what is typically considered a 6-12 month injury, it’s worth noting that other NFL players have beaten the odds before. In 2012, Baltimore Ravens pass-rusher Terrell Suggs returned from a Achilles tear in just five months, as did then-Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers in 2021.

Is it that crazy to think that Rodgers — who had his surgery performed by the same doctor who performed Akers’ surgery two years ago — could trim two more months off of his own recovery? By his own admission, it’s actually insane.

But now that he’s publicly put a timeline on it, we’re only a few weeks from finding out how crazy it really is.

[Sunday Night Football]