‘All the Smoke’ reportedly rejected Netflix offer, several other shows also turned down deals

Netflix’s big bet on sports podcasts has hit its first major snag.

Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson’s All the Smoke turned down a “couple million dollars” from the streaming giant, according to Bloomberg’s Lucas Shaw, deeming the offer wasn’t worth sacrificing YouTube virality and long-term audience growth.

Netflix reportedly increased its offer, but the two sides couldn’t reach an agreement. All the Smoke isn’t alone — Shaw reports that “several shows” rejected Netflix’s proposals, suggesting the company’s podcast strategy faces skepticism beyond a single holdout.

The streaming service has been aggressive in recent months, announcing deals with Barstool Sports — worth more than $10 million annually, per Front Office Sports — Spotify’s The Ringer, and iHeartMedia. Those partnerships brought Pardon My Take, The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Breakfast Club, and dozens of other shows to Netflix beginning this month.

But Shaw’s reporting reveals Netflix’s spending comfort zone: “six-to-low-seven figures,” with notable exceptions like Barstool. For shows like All the Smoke, which commands a high seven-figure deal from DraftKings and routinely attracts hundreds of thousands of views per episode on YouTube, a “couple million” wasn’t enough to offset what they’d be giving up.

The thing is, YouTube isn’t just a distribution platform — it’s a discovery engine. Episodes uploaded to YouTube get recommended to viewers who’ve never heard of a show, fed into algorithmic suggestions after other content ends, and shared across social media through embedded clips. That organic growth engine doesn’t exist on Netflix, where discovery relies on the platform’s opaque recommendation algorithm and users actively searching for content.

Netflix VP of sports Gabe Spitzer acknowledged the long game during a December appearance on The Varsity podcast, telling host John Ourand not to judge the company’s podcast strategy too soon. The theory is that Netflix’s algorithm could eventually funnel viewers from live sports programming to podcast content, but that’s speculation, not proven infrastructure.

For established shows, the calculus is guaranteed money from Netflix versus audience growth and ad revenue from YouTube. Barnes and Jackson, who’ve built All the Smoke from $30,000 in first-season revenue to a high seven-figure DraftKings deal, have seen what YouTube distribution can do for an independent operation. They’ve expanded into combat sports with All the Smoke Fight, launched NFL and MLB verticals, secured partnerships with Amazon, and interviewed Kamala Harris — all while maintaining their relationship with DraftKings.

The rejection also suggests Netflix may struggle to build the podcast library it wants at the prices it’s willing to pay. Pablo Torre Finds Out, another high-profile show, has only “discussed” licensing with Netflix, according to the Washington Post. Bill Simmons’ show launched live on Netflix Sunday night, and Barstool’s slate arrives later this month, but those deals required eight-figure commitments.

Netflix is waiting to gauge audience response before investing more heavily, Shaw reports.

The risk for Netflix is that by the time it decides to spend aggressively, the best shows will have figured out they don’t need it. All the Smoke already proved that. They control their IP through All the Smoke Productions, they’ve diversified revenue beyond a single platform, and they’ve built an audience that follows them across audio and video.

Barnes and Jackson didn’t need to take a lower offer from Netflix when they’re already getting paid handsomely by DraftKings while maintaining YouTube’s growth engine. If other shows reach the same conclusion, Netflix’s podcast experiment could end up as an expensive content library that never becomes the destination Spitzer envisions