Ken Rosenthal estimates ‘90%’ chance MLB locks players out in 2026

Enjoy Opening Day and the next two seasons as much as you can, because Major League Baseball appears on the fast track to locking out the players.

Senior writer for The Athletic and MLB on Fox field reporter Ken Rosenthal joined the Awful Announcing Podcast this week to discuss the 2025 season, covering baseball, Shohei Ohtani, his relationship with commissioner Rob Manfred and much more. During the interview, Rosenthal was also asked about the chances of a lockout after the current collective bargaining agreement expires following the 2026 season.

“Quite high. And if I wanted to put a number on it, I would say 90 percent,” Rosenthal admitted. “That doesn’t mean we’re gonna miss games, it doesn’t even mean we’ll get to the point where it’s an extended lockout. But the commissioner is already on the record with Evan (Drellich) as saying, ‘We think lockouts can be a good thing, healthy to the process.’ Which is a questionable remark. But there is a lot of tension right now, mostly driven by the owners who want a cap.

“Now, people say ‘This time they really want it and they’re willing to miss games.’ We hear this all the time. But my concern is we’re hearing a little earlier than we’ve heard it in the past. And it seems that the desire of the owners to do something along those lines is more fervent than in the past…But what I have a really hard time seeing is why you would take a $12.1 billion industry and take it down. That to me makes no sense. And ultimately, while we may have some stoppage or some kind of disruption in the labor situation, missing games is still hard for me to believe.”

As Rosenthal alluded to, in an interview with Evan Drellich, his colleague at The Athletic, earlier this year, Manfred said, “In a bizarre way, it’s actually a positive” about the prospect of a lockout. A bizarre statement indeed from the 66-year-old as he begins his 11th season as commissioner. On the heels of that comment from Manfred, MLBPA executive director Tony Clark has also said the players are bracing for a lockout.

If Manfred is hellbent on delivering a salary cap for the owners before signing off as commissioner, then it would seem likely that the looming 2026 lockout will be a long one. But the possibility remains that the owners will recognize the positive steps the league has taken in recent years, and value their $12.1 billion business enough to ensure no games are lost.

Listen to the full episode of the Awful Announcing Podcast beginning Friday, March 28 which features Ken Rosenthal talking about his relationship with Rob Manfred, leaving MLB Network, working with Joe Buck and more. Subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts. For more content, subscribe to AA’s YouTube page.