David Samson on potential new ESPN-MLB deal: ‘Not going to happen’

The dispute between MLB and ESPN snowballed quickly after commissioner Rob Manfred fired the first shot earlier this month.

After Manfred warned that MLB would walk away if ESPN opted out of its $550 million annual deal to air baseball in a Feb. 6 press conference, the battle lines were drawn. ESPN proceeded to do just that, informing MLB that it would end their contract after the 2025 season, two years earlier than expected.

Now that the two sides are officially parting ways, former MLB president turned sports business analyst David Samson believes Manfred will heed his threats as well.

“For those of you who think this was simply a negotiation where ESPN and MLB are going to cut another deal, and there will be more inventory for the same money, more jewel events, more possibly playoff games, postseason games, N-G-T-H. It’s not going to happen,” Samson said on a Feb. 24 episode of his Nothing Personal podcast. “The next thing you’re going to hear is MLB with a new broadcast partner.”

Because money was the central issue between ESPN and MLB, some have hoped that the two sides could strike a new deal that is more friendly to the network. That could mean paying less or getting more premium inventory (though that would be hard to do with Fox and TNT owning the rest of the postseason until 2028).

Samson is squashing that possibility right off the bat.

The Meadowlark Media personality, who ran the Montreal Expos and Florida Marlins from 1999-2017, has long been a vocal critic of ESPN’s treatment of baseball. On the ESPN relationship, Samson clearly sides with Manfred, who cited a lack of consistent MLB coverage at ESPN in a memo to teams announcing the opt-out.

“The grass is going to be the same color, except (ESPN is) going to miss it so badly,” Samson said of life after baseball for the Worldwide Leader.

Dissecting the ESPN side of the argument for opting out, Samson argued that comparing its package to smaller deals with Roku and Apple TV+ is “laughable.” To Samson, the Home Run Derby and Wild Card games are the crown jewels of ESPN’s deal, not the regular season games Roku and Apple carved out.

So Samson made no secret that he believes MLB is more likely to come out of the opt-out looking good, he acknowledged that baseball could end up the side with egg on its face.

“I’m not shilling for the commissioner or Major League Baseball,” Samson added. “Somebody’s going to get this wrong. When you announce a mutual opt-out, if both parties don’t end up improving their lots, then somebody got it wrong.”

We can bet that ESPN and MLB will watch from afar to see whether the other side lands on its feet. ESPN will seek different programming during the quiet summer months of July and August, while MLB knows it needs to get to $550 million or more per year with a new broadcast partner.

But one thing is certain, according to Samson:

“MLB and ESPN will not renew. It’s done.”