It’s fair to say the NFL’s ongoing effort to negotiate new broadcast deals several years before its post-2029 opt-out has not gone according to plan.
The league has faced hurdles in the form of federal scrutiny of its antitrust exemption, which more or less facilitates the model by which broadcast rights are sold to media companies. And much of that scrutiny can be attributed to one of its own current broadcast partners, Fox, which reportedly lobbied the Trump administration to open investigations into the NFL’s antitrust exemption with the hope that federal pressure could compel the league to continue its broadcast-forward approach to distribution as streamers like YouTube, Netflix, and Prime Video threaten to gobble up more rights.
But as fate would have it, Fox is making a move to become a player in the streaming wars as well, albeit at a much later hour than many of its legacy media competitors.
On Monday, Fox announced it intends to purchase streaming platform Roku for $22 billion, a deal designed to position the company for a future where distribution fees for Fox, Fox News, FS1, and Big Ten Network are no longer enough to sustain its business, much of which is predicated on licensing expensive sports rights.
According to the media analysts over at LightShed Partners, the deal might “embolden” the NFL to play a bit of hardball and complete new media rights deals by the end of 2026 at a moment when many observers have speculated the league could kick the can down the road due to the aforementioned federal pressure, and an unwillingness from its current broadcast partners to stomach billions in rights fee increases.
“Given the strength of Fox’s balance sheet to facilitate the Roku acquisition and how fast the combined company will delever, we suspect this will embolden the NFL to negotiate out the post-2029 season media rights deal options before year-end 2026,” the analysts wrote. “We also wonder how Fox could increase or decrease the visibility of NFL programming (or any sports programming it is licensing) across Roku’s tvOS as part of its complex negotiations with each league, creating an interesting new bargaining chip.”
Last week, LightShed argued that the NFL’s current rights partners should do everything within reason to extend the current status quo past the league’s 2029 opt-out. Prior reports indicate the league would drop the exit option in the current contracts, which run through 2033-34, in exchange for increased rights fees now.
It stands to reason, then, that the analysts believe that Fox retaining NFL rights is important to fully capitalize on its Roku acquisition. Thus, the NFL might find a more willing partner in Fox now that it plans to acquire Roku. Many have questioned Fox’s appetite to sign an early deal in the wake of recent reporting on its federal pressure campaign, as well as statements from Fox Corporation CEO Lachlan Murdoch suggesting the network already pays the “market” rate for NFL rights.
As it stands, the NFL has only formally engaged one partner, CBS, in early renewal talks. Prior reports suggest the league plans to approach its current partners one by one to negotiate new deals. Fox is reportedly next in line after CBS, though there has been “no substantive discussion” between the network and league as of last month.
Whether the league can successfully get new deals across the finish line before the end of 2026 remains to be seen. But at least in the minds of the analysts at LightShed, Monday’s deal increases the likelihood that those deals will be reached sooner rather than later.
About Drew Lerner
Drew Lerner is a staff writer for Awful Announcing and an aspiring cable subscriber. He previously covered sports media for Sports Media Watch. Future beat writer for the Oasis reunion tour.