Fox might not pick Ohio State-Penn State for Big Noon anymore

Sixteen days ago, Penn State was ranked third and hosting No. 6 Oregon. For Nittany Lions fans, all was going according to plan, and the 2025 season was still “their year.”

Three losses later, including two to conference afterthoughts UCLA and Northwestern, Penn State fired head coach James Franklin, rocking State College and the college football world.

Life comes at you fast sometimes, and this unforeseen collapse may now set in motion significant changes to the sports media landscape.

Penn State is set to visit Ohio State on November 1. This game was all but written in pen to be televised by Fox, in their love-it-or-hate-it Big Noon window. Ohio State’s Athletic Director, Ross Bjork, confirmed as much back in August when asked about the likely kickoff time, as Buckeye fans have grown more vocal about their dislike for the noon window.

“I think we know the Buckeyes drive Big Noon Kickoff. That’ll be a high-powered game,” he said. “So I think we probably know what’s going to happen around game time for that one. Fox, they love the Buckeyes. And Big Noon is a big deal. They’ve invested in that time slot. So we’ll presume it’s a 12 noon kickoff.”

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Bjork wasn’t just speculating. At this point, Ohio State-Penn State was a near certainty to be played at noon, as they’ve done every year since 2021. Aside from Michigan-Ohio State, no other matchup has been as fruitful and prized by Fox. In both 2023 and 2024, the first two years of the Big Ten’s new television contract, Fox aired the game in the noon window and was rewarded with a nearly ten-million-viewer audience, both of which were among the most-watched regular-season games each season.

If you’re unfamiliar with how the TV selections work for the Big Ten, it can be complicated. But there are two key things to remember.

1. The networks do not select actual games when they conduct their network draft; instead, they choose which weekend they would like to have the first pick of games.
2. Every year, Fox gets to pick the first three weekends they want to have the top pick of games BEFORE CBS and NBC get a pick of one weekend each, which they get to choose the first game.

Networks sometimes announce the actual game they are going to pick on certain weekends at their annual advertiser upfronts (Fox did this for the Ohio State-Texas and Ohio State-Michigan, but opted to wait on Ohio State-Penn State).

For this season, Fox has selected the Ohio State-Michigan weekend, the opening Ohio State-Texas weekend, and the Ohio State-Penn State weekend with their first three picks. Hence, Bjork’s comments on the presumed kickoff times. NBC presumably had the fourth pick of weekends and went with Week 5, where they selected Oregon-Penn State.

Essentially, Fox chose Week 10, which featured Ohio State-Penn State, over Week Five, which featured Penn State-Oregon, and subsequently registered 8.5 million viewers.

Now, with three-loss Penn State in a freefall, a fired head coach, a star quarterback out for the season, and the possibility of adding a fourth loss next weekend at Iowa, the presumption Fox will actually pick Ohio State-Penn State is very much in doubt.

That weekend features a growingly attractive matchup between USC visiting Nebraska, with both teams now 5-1 and ranked.

I, and others, have assumed FOX used one of their top 3 selections across the season to choose 1st on 11/1 for PSU-OSU. Its no longer a “top 3” pick with PSU’s slide. Might still be best 11/1 game. USC-NEB is in mix too.

Its why I don’t project across a season.

— Matt Sarzyniak (@mattsarz) October 11, 2025

So what will actually shake out here?

First, Fox doesn’t need to make this pick until early next week and perhaps could even wait until the following week. Nebraska has to go to Minnesota, USC is an underdog on the road at Notre Dame, and Penn State is an underdog at Iowa. If Nebraska and USC win next weekend, and Penn State loses, the likelihood of USC-Nebraska getting the nod over Ohio State-Penn State goes way up.

Speaking with some ratings experts, most believe that Ohio State-Penn State remains around 70% likely as Fox’s pick at the moment. USC beating a ranked Notre Dame on NBC, coupled with Nebraska staying ranked while Penn State continues to lose, could drastically change that, though.

Ultimately, the Ohio State fan base is substantial and engaged, and they would still tune in to watch the Penn State game, regardless of the Nittany Lions’ record. Penn State also has a large fanbase, although its propensity to tune in might be shrinking slightly.

I asked friend of the site and Nittany Lion enthusiast, Bill DiFilippo, his read on the Penn State viewing interest for the Ohio State game.

“I think most Penn State fans will watch,” he said. “Obviously, a percentage of them will find other things to do, I’d guess 15% or so — we’re, through hell or high water, a loyal bunch. Their next game — the last before the OSU game — is at Kinnick with a first-time starter at quarterback who has thrown 13 career passes. Just impossible to know how any of that goes. If they look awful, I’d guess more fans just find something else to do on Nov. 1.”

Beyond just trying to gauge the shifting interest in this game, as well as the USC-Nebraska game, is also trying to assess the competitiveness of the game and the national interest outside of the two fanbases.  If Fox sees Penn State’s tailspin continue and believes the game will not be competitive, that will cause audiences without a rooting interest to switch to more competitive games, which will drag the rating down. If Fox sees a potential blowout, it might opt to steer away from it.

Ultimately, it’s a fluid situation and a tough decision. Not picking Oregon-Penn State is a decision that hasn’t aged well, but at least Fox didn’t announce it was definitely showing Penn State-Ohio State, making it impossible to back out. If it does audible, whoever has second pick of games that weekend, either CBS at 3:30 ET or NBC in primetime, would have the Big Ten battle fall to them.

Part of me also wonders if Fox is genuinely undecided about which game to pick. Would it opt for USC-Nebraska to throw Ohio State a bone, given how vocal Ohio State fans and their athletic department have been about complaining about noon kickoff times, as well as the addition of Dave Portnoy to Big Noon Kickoff?

Regardless of what shakes out, it seems very unlikely that Fox will get the usual 9 million+ viewers they expect from OSU-PSU, so it has quite a decision to make.