Fox’s Lachlan Murdoch suggests NFL opt-out ‘an opportunity’ to ‘deepen relationship’ with league

While several years away, the impending opt-out clause in the NFL’s current set of media rights agreements is still a major point of discussion among network executives. And rightfully so. It’s not an exaggeration to say that the NFL, and the NFL alone, is keeping traditional broadcast networks like CBS and Fox alive.

So it’s no surprise to see Fox Corporation CEO Lachlan Murdoch view the NFL’s opportunity to walk away from its current broadcast agreements in 2029 as “an opportunity” for Fox to deepen its relationship with the league. That’s what Murdoch told investors at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Monday.

“The NFL’s are largest partnership,” Murdoch said. “They have an incredible product and we’ve had a deep relationship with them for a very long time. So we see this amend and extend provision, which is still some years out, as an opportunity for us to frankly deepen our relationship with the NFL.”

Of course, Fox might have some increased competition for NFL rights come 2029. By then, the major tech and streaming companies like Amazon, Google, Netflix, Apple, etc., could have more of an appetite to jump fully into live sports. They also have the capital to outbid traditional media companies like Fox.

However, keeping NFL rights is more of an existential question for a company like Fox. Without the NFL, the network’s entire business model would collapse as cable and satellite distributors would refuse to pay the exorbitant retransmission fees Fox can currently demand as an NFL broadcaster. Thus, Fox might be willing to pay a premium for NFL rights simply as a means of survival.

It’s also worth noting Murdoch’s wording regarding the NFL’s opt-out clause as an “amend and extend provision.” This could simply be language chosen to spin the narrative in Fox’s favor. Rather than an “opt-out,” this is an “opportunity,” as Murdoch suggests, for Fox to reevaluate and deepen its relationship with the league via an extension.

But this language could also imply something more, such as a possible exclusive negotiating period that the incumbent partners could have with the NFL should the league choose to exercise its option. To be clear, there’s no reporting to suggest this is or isn’t the case, but Murdoch’s choice of words would seem to suggest that the NFL’s 2029 opt-out might not be as cut and dry as prior reporting would indicate.

Murdoch also took the Morgan Stanley conference as an opportunity to discuss Fox’s upcoming direct-to-consumer strategy, specifically as it relates to the network’s core business model of cable and satellite distribution. He suggested that the network’s future streaming service will be aimed at cord-cutters and “cord-nevers,” and be priced accordingly. As such, the service will have modest subscriber expectations and won’t be heavily advertised in order to protect Fox’s profits from the pay TV bundle.

The Fox CEO colorfully drove home that latter point during the call by saying, if lead NFL analyst Tom Brady was ever hawking the company’s streaming service on the broadcast channel, “my head would explode.”