It was a good season for NFL favorites, which made it a bad one for sportsbooks.
That includes FanDuel, which, according to Sportico, released a statement earlier this week announcing that it is lowering its 2024 revenue projections by $370 million due to the NFL season’s results.
According to the outlet, FanDuel previously projected its revenue for 2024 to be between $6.05 billion and $6.25 billion. The Flutter Entertainment subsidiary has since lowered the midpoint to “approximately $5.78 billion,” with the midpoint guidance for domestic adjusted EBITDA dropping by $205 million to $505 million.
The statement reads:
“Following our Q3 earnings report on Nov. 12, continued strong U.S. player momentum has been offset by a period of very unfavorable U.S. sports results across the remainder of November and in December, primarily on NFL parlay and same-game parlay outcomes. The 2024-25 NFL season to date has been the most customer-friendly since the launch of online sports betting with the highest rate of favorites winning in nearly 20 years.”
Despite the hit, FanDuel said that the reduced projection doesn’t expect to impact its business in the long term.
As noted in the statement, the core issue for FanDuel and other sportsbooks is that favorites win outright and/or cover the spread at a historically high rate.
According to Covers.com, favorites went 195-77 straight up and 144-121-7 against the spread during the 2024 NFL season. And with favorites being the preferred side of the betting public, the sportsbooks’ losses on the season are academic.
This trend first became apparent in November, when FanDuel’s chief rival, DraftKings, lowered its guidance amid what Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas called “the worst stretch” of NFL results it had seen. At the time, the sportsbooks hoped the pendulum would swing back in their favor during the final two months of the regular season. But as it turns out, the house doesn’t always win.
About Ben Axelrod
Ben Axelrod is a veteran of the sports media landscape, having most recently worked for NBC's Cleveland affiliate, WKYC. Prior to his time in Cleveland, he covered Ohio State football and the Big Ten for outlets including Cox Media Group, Bleacher Report, Scout and Rivals.