One of the biggest talking points around the 2025 NCAA Tournament thus far has been around the lack of upsets during the first weekend, which has led to some being disappointed with the overall product. But according to Jay Bilas, this is largely a blip on the radar rather than a troubling trend that some have made it out to be.
The likes of Stephen A. Smith, and Scott Van Pelt, among others, have made it a point to discuss how the rise of NIL and the transfer portal in college sports has played a factor in the mid-majors largely struggling in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
In particular, Smith outlined how he believes that the lack of Cinderella’s making noise in the tournament will ultimately lead to “the death of college basketball” should it continue.
ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas recently shared his thoughts on the matter during an appearance on Beat The Closing Number, a sports betting podcast affiliated with TheLines.com, outlining how he believes that there isn’t enough of a sample size to determine that the transfer portal has had any negative impact on the NCAA Tournament product.
“I don’t think it’s necessarily dominance. I think it’s one year. We’ve had years like this before where we didn’t have as much chaos in the first and second rounds as we have had in other years. It’s a year-to-year thing. I think what people tend to forget, in my view it’s a facile interpretation. We didn’t get as many upsets as fans tend to like. Therefore, it’s the fault of NIL and the portal. It’s just not true.
“One, the NIL and the portal spreads talent out. It doesn’t concentrate it. You have had a lot of people say, and it’s a fact, that all 16 teams (in the Sweet 16) came from four conferences. But what they aren’t talking about is the school’s portal. Two years ago, Houston was in the American Athletic Conference. BYU was in the West Coast Conference. And Arizona was in the Pac-12. With the same field two years ago, we would have had seven different conferences. Would that make people feel better?
“We classified BYU as a mid-major two years ago. We classified Houston, frankly, as a mid-major because they played in the American. They are the same teams. Out of the American, Houston went to the Final Four. It’s the same program, same team. If having 7 different conferences would make people feel better, that’s not the portal or NIL, that’s the schools choosing to bolt where they have been, not wanting to go through adversity, and the same things we say about players.
“Drake, Colorado State, New Mexico, McNeese (State), Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, all won first-round games. Colorado State was a buzzer-beater shot against Maryland from going to the Sweet 16. That’s just happenstance, that’s not an NIL thing, not some portal thing. One data point does not make a trend. This is one year. So what I would say is let’s pump the brakes on this sky is falling, the tournament is never going to be the same, type of business.”
Bilas, who has always been in favor of player movement when it comes to the transfer portal, went on to call out the hypocrisy when it comes to negativity around the transfer portal compared to the lack of outrage when coaches similarly leave for better opportunities.
“I think you have seen in the last couple of days, and I don’t have a problem with it, it’s the way the world works, the coach’s portal is always open. Nobody calls that tampering, or poaching, or has a problem with the coaches and their commitment. Are they willing to go through adversity? Do they show loyalty? Those coaches, Darian DeVries, Ben McCollum, you name it, there is a whole bunch of them. They were negotiating their out when the tournament was going on. So the players shouldn’t be put in a separate category in my view.”
Maybe we will soon find that it does become a recurring trend that there are fewer and fewer upsets in the NCAA Tournament due to the rise of NIL and the transfer portal. But as Bilas said, it’s hard to definitively determine that this is the case after just a one-year sample size.
