Bill Simmons didn’t get his nickname “The Podfather” by spitting out freezing-cold takes. The man usually delivers. And his latest titillating rant aims a recent addition to ESPN’s MLB broadcasts this season, the win probability graphic.
Earlier this year, ESPN added a win probability graphic to its MLB scorebug above each team’s logo. The decision was met with mixed reviews at the time. But now, with some viewers tuning into baseball for the first time all year as the postseason begins, many are seeing the new graphic for the very first time.
Count Simmons among those who aren’t thrilled with the addition. On the latest episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, Simmons went in on the decision. “I have a baseball playoff nitpick. They put the win probability at the top now. Who is that for? Like, morons? Who is that for? Like, haven’t we paid enough homage to the nerds that we now have to have win probability?”
Bill Simmons goes on EPIC RANT where he EVISCERATES the MLB win probability graphics
“Who is that for? Morons??” pic.twitter.com/M3fKiBEe7c
— The r/BillSimmons Podcast 🎙️ (@rBillSimmonsPod) October 7, 2024
Simmons continued questioning the new graphic alongside podcast regular Cousin Sal Iacono, asking whether it’s necessary to quantify how likely a team is to win the game. “Do we need win probability to describe a comeback? Like, we need a stat to say that something was awesome? Who started this,” an exasperated Simmons said.
Cousin Sal chimed in, “Also, it can’t be great for viewership. Like, if you’re telling the viewer ‘Hey, the Phillies have a 93% chance of winning,’ the viewer might be like, ‘Oh alright, I’m going to go put on the Liberty and Aces.'”
The duo has a point. Who would have any interest in watching a game where one team supposedly wins 93% of the time? ESPN, who expected some pushback on the graphic before it even launched, might counter that the graphic would elevate the 7% of the time when a team comes back. At the very least, it adds perspective to the state of a given game.
Even if the graphic has its share of detractors, it’s unlikely it’s going anywhere anytime soon. ESPN Vice President of Production Phil Orlins said of the graphic before the season began, “You know, it will cause some reaction, and it will not probably at the outset be mostly positive reaction. But I think over time it will connect with the psyche and intention of the viewers.”
Like it or not, win probability is here to stay. At least viewers can take some solace in the fact that the graphic requires a magnifying glass to read.
