Would sluggish CFP ratings be a blessing in disguise for TNT?

A feast of football awaits this Saturday with a trio of College Football Playoff games to go with a marquee NFL doubleheader.

Much has already been said about the circumstances surrounding the crowded schedule. College football loyalists are upset that the NFL would dare to schedule such high-octane matchups on a Saturday — a day traditionally reserved for college games. Meanwhile, NFL fans point to the fact that the league has scheduled games on this Saturday for decades, and only this year has college football needed the day to accommodate its extended playoff.

Both sides have fair points, but one thing is certain. The current arrangement is not ideal for fans who would like to watch both.

So how exactly did this happen?

Back in 2022, when plans for the extended CFP came together, the committee in charge of the schedule opted to place three first round games on Saturday, knowing full well that the NFL traditionally schedules games on that day. It was a strange move considering the two entities have traditionally cooperated to schedule around each other in the past.

This move upset NFL executives, who responded by trying to convince the CFP to shift one of its three Saturday games to Friday. In this scenario, two CFP games would be on Friday, and another two would be played on Saturday along with the pair of NFL games. Reporting from this summer revealed that the NFL already showed some level of deference to the CFP by choosing to forego a third game in primetime on Saturday as is typical for the league, instead just scheduling two afternoon games.

Had the CFP moved one game from Saturday to Friday, the two entities could have conceivably created a schedule where fans could watch most, if not all, of every single game, pro and college. Instead, two CFP games are going almost directly head-to-head with the NFL games. SMU-Penn State kicks off at noon ET with Texans-Chiefs kicking off an hour later at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, Clemson-Texas is slotted for 4:00 p.m. ET with Steelers-Ravens beginning at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Not only will the direct NFL competition suppress the potential audiences for these CFP games, but the channels the games are being played on will also have a significant impact. Both afternoon CFP games will air on TNT after the network reached a sublicensing deal with ESPN earlier this year. Conversely, both NFL games will air on broadcast channels (NBC and Fox), which provides a larger reach than its cable counterpart.

The NFL broadcast presence on a Saturday is atypical. Traditionally, the league has placed these late season Saturday games on its cable channel NFL Network. The decision to place Saturday’s games on NBC and Fox would seemingly signal that the NFL is trying to send a strong message to the CFP to stop encroaching in their territory.

A convincing NFL win in the ratings would certainly help that message be received, which makes for an interesting reality at TNT.

TNT’s sublicensing deal with ESPN gives them two first round CFP games each season through 2028, with an additional two quarterfinal games per year beginning in 2026. ESPN gets to choose exactly which games TNT receives in the deal. This year, that choice was obvious — give TNT the two games competing directly with the NFL. That’s obviously not ideal for TNT, who paid in the nine-figure range for these games.

A similar standoff between the CFP and NFL could easily happen next year, which begs the question: should TNT hope for poor ratings this season to ensure the CFP schedules around the NFL in the future?

It’s not as crazy as it sounds. With four more years of this sublicensing deal left, it would be pretty devastating if TNT was stuck airing games in the NFL’s shadow every season. But if this year’s TNT games come back with weak ratings, it’s hard to imagine the CFP wouldn’t alter its schedule next season and try to avoid the behemoth that is the NFL. That could prove fruitful for TNT in the long run if they’re able to secure windows without NFL competition in future seasons.

The worst case scenario for TNT is a set of middling ratings that would lead the CFP to believe they can compete head-to-head with the NFL when they really cannot. If I’m a TNT executive anticipating Saturday’s viewership numbers, I’m rooting for either stellar ratings that show the CFP can draw huge audiences despite NFL competition, or I’m rooting for truly wretched ratings that would force the CFP to change its schedule next year.

No matter what, Saturday’s football viewership will be one of the more interesting ratings stories of 2024. Without a doubt, those numbers will have implications on where games land on the schedule in 2025.