Seismic changes to the College Football Playoff format could be underway.
According to a deeply reported piece by Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger on Sunday evening, the SEC and Big Ten are spearheading changes to the CFP format that could see expansion from 12 teams to 14 or 16, create up to four automatic qualifying spots for both conferences, and drastically change how the sport’s regular season and conference championship schedule looks.
Under one of the proposed playoff formats, which is reportedly being discussed at the highest levels of conference leadership, the SEC and Big Ten would each get four automatic berths in the CFP, with the ACC and Big 12 each receiving two, one slot going to the highest-ranking Group of 5 team, one slot going to Notre Dame (should they finish the season ranked in the top-14), and the remaining spots being determined on an at-large basis by the playoff committee.
The goal, as with everything in the world of college football these days, is to maximize the television revenue earned from the networks; in this case, ESPN, who owns rights to college football’s postseason through 2031.
The SEC and Big Ten both exert outsized control over a potential new format based on a “memorandum of understanding” signed last spring in which the so-called “Power-2” are granted near autonomous control on the CFP’s new format, so long as there is still consideration for the “lesser conferences” such as the Big 12, ACC, and Group of 5. The memorandum was signed under the auspices that both the SEC and Big Ten were prepared to breakaway from the current structure and create its own postseason should the other conferences not capitulate.
Under the new format, CFP television revenue would be disproportionately awarded to the SEC and Big Ten, who would reportedly triple their current allotments. Currently, the power conferences split 80% of the revenue evenly, with the Group of 5 divvying up most of the rest.
Per Dellenger, the proposed changes would “clear the way” for the SEC to begin playing nine regular season conference games, which would then have a knock-on effect to other parts of the schedule.
Primarily, a ninth conference game would trigger a likely scheduling agreement with the Big Ten that would pit the two conference’s schools against each other for one game each season (similar to cross-conference competitions seen in college basketball). The games would then be sold as a separate television package, generating yet more revenue for the two conferences as schools scramble for ways to pay players in college football’s new era.
An expanded playoff would also have a drastic impact on conference championship weekend. According to the report, conferences would begin considering turning championship weekend into a “play-in” format of sorts. For example, the SEC or Big Ten — with their four automatic berths each — could pit their third-seeded team against their sixth-seeded team, and their fourth team against the fifth, in play-in games that determine who receives an automatic bid into the CFP. The ACC and Big 12 are considering similar changes under the new format. Again, the extra inventory creates possible revenue increases.
It’s unlikely any of these changes would take hold for 2025, the final year of the current television deal with ESPN. Conference leadership outside of the SEC and Big Ten are still skeptical about any format alterations, and this is the final year where those opinions can conceivably hold any weight, as the “memorandum of understanding” doesn’t apply until the new television deal with ESPN kicks in for 2026.
One additional consideration for the new format will be the schedule. Any expansion to 14 or 16 teams would presumably leave even more television windows competing with the NFL during the third Saturday in December. That didn’t exactly work out well for college football this year, and there’s easy, workable solutions to avoid conflict under the 12-team format.
The CFP Management Committee will meet in Dallas next week where the SEC and Big Ten will likely propose one or several new format possibilities.
