Kirk Herbstreit thinks he knows why USC can’t buy respect in the polls, and Lincoln Riley’s track record against ranked opponents is doing most of the explaining.
The Trojans beat Michigan 31-13 this past Saturday, dominating a ranked opponent at home in what should’ve been a statement win. Instead, USC stayed at No. 20 in the AP poll. During an appearance on The Dan Patrick Show this week, Herbstreit broke down why voters aren’t budging.
“I think what’s happened to USC, when it comes to AP voters and maybe even the Coaches Poll, is they’re kind of one foot in and one foot out,” Herbstreit said. “You know, it’s been a long time since USC has been a relevant, top-10 team. And I think, more often than not, a program like USC, with its tradition, gets the benefit of the doubt when it comes to preseason rankings.”
USC got that blue-blood bump coming into the season. Now it’s paying for not delivering. Riley came to Los Angeles with an $11.5 million contract and a reputation built on winning big games at Oklahoma, where he went 15-6 against ranked opponents. At USC, he’s 5-11 against ranked teams through four seasons. The Michigan win bumped that record to 5-11, but one victory doesn’t erase three years of blown leads and losses to teams the Trojans should beat.
“And the last few years with Lincoln Riley there, they’ve not proven to be the team that could adjust to the Big Ten and become a perennial power,” Herbstreit continued. “So, people are kind of like, ‘OK, let’s wait and see.'”
That skepticism makes sense when you look at how USC has lost games. Last season, the Trojans blew a 30-23 lead to Penn State with under six minutes left before losing in overtime. They led Maryland 28-14 with 13 minutes left before losing. They were up 17-10 in the third quarter at Minnesota before giving up two touchdowns in the final eight minutes. This season, they blew a 14-point lead to Illinois, a game in which Riley’s clock management became a talking point.
Riley went 15-6 against ranked opponents at Oklahoma. At USC, he’s been a different coach in those moments, and one win over Michigan doesn’t erase that pattern.
Herbstreit said as much.
“I still feel like, even though they beat Michigan fairly convincingly? I still feel like OK, OK, OK, let’s see how they do at Notre Dame,” Herbstreit said. “Then I can say, ‘OK, Lincoln Riley’s got ’em going.’ That’s my take on where USC is.”
Notre Dame is up next on Saturday in South Bend. The Fighting Irish have won the last two meetings and are 4-2 with a four-game winning streak. Beat Notre Dame, and USC has two ranked wins and real momentum heading into November matchups against Nebraska and Oregon. Lose, and Riley’s record against ranked opponents stays at 5-12 while voters keep the Trojans at No. 20 with no reason to move them higher.
All of that explains why Herbstreit’s read on voter skepticism isn’t wrong. USC hired Riley to restore the program to national relevance and gave him every resource to do it. Three-plus years in, voters are still waiting for proof that Riley can win the games that matter. The Michigan victory was a start. Notre Dame is the next test. If USC wants to climb the polls, it’ll have to earn it one ranked opponent at a time.
About Sam Neumann
Since the beginning of 2023, Sam has been a staff writer for Awful Announcing and The Comeback. A 2021 graduate of Temple University, Sam is a Charlotte native, who currently calls Greenville, South Carolina his home. He also has a love/hate relationship with the New York Mets and Jets.