No expansion necessary: The 12-team College Football Playoff is fine and getting better

It’s official: We will have a third year of a 12-team playoff.

This actually wasn’t what the powers that be wanted. The power conferences, sans the Big Ten, all wanted to move to a 16-team playoff, but The Conference Up North (whose approval is required to change the format) didn’t agree because they want the playoff to expand over time to an insane 24 teams.

Ultimately, the countdown clock on expanding the CFP next year hit zero, and they punted. Nobody got what they wanted, and they’ll circle back and try again next year.

For a while, it seemed like expansion to 16 teams was a foregone conclusion. Truth be told, it will still probably happen at some point. To some degree, people seem more open to the idea of 16 teams only because 20 and 24 have been bandied about, making 16 seem rational by comparison. A 16-team playoff would still probably be okay, but I want to remind everyone about the most obvious option available…

THE 12-TEAM PLAYOFF FORMAT IS ACTUALLY TOTALLY FINE.

Why This Matters

The push to expand the CFP always comes down to two things.

First, a traditional powerhouse is left out, and its fanbase, along with a collection of general college football fans, take umbrage that a somewhat-deserving squad has been robbed of its chance. This is an issue that has always existed in college football, from the Bowl Coalition era to the Bowl Alliance, to the BCS, to the four-team CFP, to now. ‘Fill-in-the-blank got screwed, so let’s expand the teams to ensure that never happens again!’

Second is TV money. Playoff games, thanks to their win-or-go-home nature, bring in big ratings. More teams mean more playoff games, which means bigger ratings, which means more money to give to schools, athletic departments, coaches, and now players. The Big Ten’s unique push for 24 teams, can be partially attributed to the fact that its television partner, Fox, is almost totally done for the year in terms of broadcasting college football games by the end of November. December and January, ESPN (and TNT) draw eyeballs and print money that, combined with a pro-SEC tilt, has motivated the Big Ten into pushing a 24-team playoff, large enough where FOX would likely have to be involved.

When I was in college, I watched Ohio State beat Michigan in November 2002. The next time they played was the national championship game. Now, the path to a championship game often includes four more contests (a conference championship game and three additional playoff games).

What The Fans Want

So, what is the best number of teams for a college football playoff?

Obviously, it’s debatable. In a recent X poll we did, almost a quarter of people said 12 is already too many. Over 30% said 12 is ideal. The top performer was “14 or 16 teams,” and support for the Big Ten’s 24-team proposal was in the toilet.

Why The 12-Team CFP Is Perfectly Fine

Let’s start with the grievances of who was left out this year (Notre Dame, Texas, and Vanderbilt).

Many thought Notre Dame should not have gotten in over Miamidespite Miami actually beating Notre Dame. However, next year the ACC will have new criteria for who plays in the ACC Championship Game. That criteria, if applied this year, would have given Miami an extra game in the conference championship, which they likely would have won, creating further distance from Notre Dame. The Miami vs. ND argument would have been much more settled if the Hurricanes had won or lost in a conference championship game. If Miami had won the ACC Championship game, it would have received an autobid and would have bumped out James Madison, with Notre Dame likely getting in as well.

Additionally, Notre Dame has its own special treatment going forward: If they are a top-12 team in the CFP rankings, they’ll automatically get in. This has rankled a ton of people (rightfully so), but it takes future pressure off the committee when the lucrative Fighting Irish might be on the bubble.

Furthermore, the ACC is adding a ninth conference game, as is the SEC, joining the rest of the non-scaredy-cat Power Four conferences. ESPN has to be quite thrilled with this development, as they’ll avoid weeks in November where half their TV slate is this.

This year, Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Texas found themselves on or near the CFP bubble. Would all have these teams won their ninth conference game versus the automatic win over whatever tomato-can they scheduled? Lump in Oklahoma, which had two conference losses, and it’s likely one or several of these teams would have picked up another loss, thinning out the bubble. Others might have bolstered their resumes with a stronger win. In fact, some of the teams on the bubble might have played one another, giving us the ideal metric.

Extra ACC and SEC conference games would give us more data points and potential head-to-head matchups, presumably making it easier to sort out the bubble.

Other Things To Consider

The CFP is already struggling to schedule these games. Adding to that is only going to create more issues down the road.

Two CFP games currently air against NFL games and get crushed ratings-wise.

The presumption that the CFP needs to start earlier got serious pushback after President Trump, likely nudged by the CBS-owning Ellisons, signaled he won’t allow other college football games to air against Army vs. Navy.

Since TV networks value conference championships at $40-70 million per game, it’s unlikely they’ll go away.

The CFP really doesn’t have much room to add more games, let alone optimize the current slate.

There is also the ongoing debate over whether expansion hurts or helps regular-season TV ratings. Some believe that more teams in contention for the CFP means more fans watch games later in the season. Others believe that regular-season matchups between two highly ranked teams lose value because the outcome no longer matters as much as it used to. Losing one or even two games during the season isn’t the championship-race death sentence it used to be.

There Is No Perfect Answer

Ultimately, there is no right answer for how many teams the CFP should have. Before the playoffs existed, four teams seemed ideal. Then it quickly felt like too few. Is 12 the “correct” number? Or is it not enough to meet the needs of the modern game?

Honestly, it depends on the year, the teams involved, and what’s most important to you as a college football fan.

With all that said, we are two years into the 12-team CFP, and so many college football voices act like it’s some kind of flawed system that can only be solved by further expansion. There’s always going to be a snubbed team or “unworthy” G5 entrant who will prove the point on someone’s behalf.

No number of playoff teams is going to make everyone happy. Perhaps because of that, 12 is the perfect compromise. If your chief concern is about what happens on the field, it’s hard to make the case that anyone beyond the Top 12 should be playing for a championship. But if your major issue is optimizing TV money, which is what so many of the sport’s power brokers are focused on, it’s simply not enough.

One wonders what that number would be for them.