If you’re like me and couldn’t resist loading up your March Madness bracket with mid-major upsets, you’re probably sitting in the bottom 30% of the leaderboard. At this point, it’s fair to say we’ve learned our lesson about trusting Cinderella — especially against power conference teams.
Whether that lesson sticks when we fill out our brackets next year remains to be seen. In the meantime, we’re left chewing on the possibility that the era of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) and the transfer portal have effectively shut the door on mid-majors making deep runs.
Jay Williams certainly thinks so.
On Monday’s episode of Get Up, he argued that NIL is killing off Cinderella stories, stripping mid-majors of their best talent before they ever get a chance to make a name for themselves in March. The days of a George Mason or a Loyola Chicago shocking the world might be fading, replaced by a system where top mid-major players get poached before they can even dream of a Final Four.
“I think my biggest takeaway of everything over the weekend was that NIL is the death of mid-major Cinderella runs,” the former Duke Blue Devils star said. “It still can happen, but I think it’s gonna be more of a rarity?”
And why?
“It’s going to be more of a rarity due to the fact that I think we’re going to see a lot of players that are playing for the Colorado State’s, that are playing for the McNeese’s, that are playing for the Drake’s, that are going to get poached by mid-level Power Four, Power Five conferences,” added Williams. “And you’re going to see teams in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten, in the middle of the pack of the Big 12, see these players and say, ‘Hey, we’ll give you 4x.’ ‘We’ll give you 5x of what you’re earning at your mid-major conference.’
“And when I talk to mid-major coaches, the consistent complaint I always hear from them is retention. ‘We can’t hold onto players because these Power Four schools are just clipping and taking them away from us. And that’s why I think you’re seeing chalk as much as you’re seeing right now, as we get to the Sweet 16. You’re not seeing any mid-major left; you’re seeing the big boys. And I think that’s gonna be the case moving forward.
“NIL is the death of mid-major Cinderella runs. … It still can happen, but I think it’s going to be more of a rarity.”
—@RealJayWilliams on the impact of NIL in college basketball pic.twitter.com/Z4xguBu7Hj
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) March 24, 2025
It’s a bleak outlook but one that feels harder to ignore with each passing tournament.
Williams, however, certainly didn’t ignore it — his bracket was as chalk as they come.
Just here for the comments…. pic.twitter.com/rvIWuqTC8W
— Jay Williams (@RealJayWilliams) March 22, 2025
The results backed up his point.
UC San Diego pushed Michigan to the brink. Robert Morris gave Alabama a scare. High Point threw everything at Purdue.
But pushing a team to the limit and actually beating them are two different things. McNeese State barely eked out a win over Clemson, only to get steamrolled by Purdue. And while Colorado State took down Memphis in the classic 12-over-5 upset, they were knocked out in heartbreaking fashion by Maryland, falling on a controversial buzzer-beater. Without that shot, the Rams — not the Terrapins — would be in the Sweet 16.
And let’s be honest, Colorado State was under-seeded to begin with.
But that’s beside the point here.
Maybe Cinderella isn’t dead. But she’s certainly running out of time before midnight strikes.
