CBS parent Paramount Global reportedly ‘has a good shot’ at record Super Bowl ad revenue

Airing the Super Bowl is a huge deal for broadcasters, with audiences typically exceeding 100 million average viewers (since 2009, 11 of 14 have beat that mark). That leads to huge prices for commercials, which also often have massive budgets and receive far more media and social media discussion than the average ad.

That’s why how many Super Bowls networks get to air is a huge part of their overall NFL contracts. And the league’s latest media deals (through the 2033-34 season) that added ABC to the Super Bowl rotation served as a big part of that. But with all that said, it’s notable to hear about a broadcaster potentially setting a record for ad sales. Here’s more on that from Anthony Crupi of Sportico, in terms of how this may apply to the CBS coverage of Super Bowl LVIII Sunday:

According to Guideline, a measurement service that taps into the transactional data of all six major U.S. media holding companies, the average rate for a single 30-second unit in the 49ers-Chiefs showdown was $6.47 million a pop. That marks an 11% increase versus last year’s rate, which worked out to $5.83 million.

…On the other side of the ledger, marketers that snapped up their units in the scatter market paid higher rates than those that bought in the spring upfront bazaar, with those later buys coming in at $7 million and up. Guideline’s estimates are pegged to the primary broadcast on the CBS flagship; according to media buyers, units sold in the Nickelodeon simulcast topped out at around $300,000 a throw.

…While Guideline did not provide estimates of how much cash CBS is expected to generate on Sunday’s game, if the network didn’t allot an outsized portion of its inventory to in-house promos, it has a good shot at topping the high-water mark of $650 million that Fox reported as part of its May 2023 earnings call.

As Crupi also notes there, the Super Bowl is one of the few broadcasts where the ad buys are made without ratings guarantees. So there’s no potential for “makegood” free ad offerings later if the broadcast draws low ratings. (Of course, the Super Bowl drawing good ratings is a pretty safe bet, but it is significant that just how good or not those ratings are does not particularly matter to the Paramount Global bottom line.)

Paramount Global does face more exposure than normal here thanks to their alternate broadcast on Nickelodeon. That’s a significant extra cost outlay for them, and early in January, there was discussion about Nick-specific ads (in the spots available thanks to adult-focused CBS ads or other companies that declined the Nick simulcast option) selling slowly. But by the end of January, those were reportedly sold out, and CBS Sports chairman Sean McManus confirmed a sellout for the Nick broadcast as well as the CBS one on a media call last week. So that side seems to be working out for them as well.

Of course, even a record take from ad sales is not necessarily earth-shattering overall. Inflation is a factor there, and the remarkably-good NFL ratings this year add to the idea that the Super Bowl ad prices should be through the roof. But it is interesting to see buy-side metrics like the ones Crupi cites, which suggest this could be a very good Super Bowl indeed for CBS and Paramount Global.

[Sportico]