All Elite Wrestling hosted its annual “Winter is Coming” edition of AEW Dynamite on Wednesday, which has traditionally been one of the pro wrestling promotion’s tentpole events.
Only you wouldn’t have known it based on the show’s ratings, which drew an average of 594,000 viewers and a .17 rating in the key 18-49 demographic.
The episode marked the third consecutive week in which AEW’s flagship show has failed to crack 600,000 average viewers or reach .20 in the key demo. According to Wrestlenomics, Dynamite‘s total viewers for the fourth quarter of 2024 are down 26 percent year-over-year, with the past three quarters marking three of the show’s four least-watched since its inception in 2019.
Winter is coming? Or is it already here?
Of course, ratings are hardly the end all be all, especially considering that AEW’s new media rights deal with Warner Bros. Discovery won’t even go into effect until the start of the new year. Say what you will about the company, but from a business standpoint, it’s an undisputed success and currently on track to become the most profitable non-WWE promotion in pro wrestling history.
Still, the recent ratings trends raise red flags. Especially when coupled with other key indicators, like AEW’s decline in pay-per-view purchases and borderline disastrous attendance figures.
What’s more is that while AEW still delivers great matches week in and week out, there’s been a growing dissatisfaction with the company’s overall creative that’s been impossible to ignore. So much so that fans and analysts alike have called for owner Tony Khan to take a step back from his role as AEW’s head booker, a suggestion he hasn’t shown any indication he’ll take into consideration.
So what does it all mean?
While AEW’s immediate financial future may be secure, its recent downward trends are hardly irrelevant. With its impending media rights package with WBD being a three-year deal with an option for a fourth year, the reality is that we’re only two years away from the negotiations for AEW’s next deal from taking place.
Two years might seem like a long time, but that might be how long AEW needs to turn its current creative around. As its ratings trends show, the company didn’t fall off a cliff, but has been slowly declining since late-2022. And short of an improbable quick fix like one of WWE’s top stars jumping ship, it will likely take just as long for AEW to get back on track
Whether or not it can do so is anyone’s guess.
On the one hand, its roster is clearly capable, even if it’s getting a tad bit heavy on ex-WWE stars. On the other, perhaps the biggest disadvantage AEW finds itself facing is something it can’t control, with WWE showing no signs of slowing down heading into its own new media rights deal with Netflix next month.
With the pieces in place both in terms of talent and media exposure, it will ultimately come down to the company’s creative and whether or not Khan — or someone else — can restore the magic that got the company off to such a hot start in the first place. Doing so will certainly be easier said than done, especially considering that there aren’t nearly as many wrestling fans looking for a WWE alternative as there were in 2019.
With its new rights deal still weeks away from going into effect, the clock isn’t ticking just yet. But the sooner AEW can warm up from its current cold streak, the better off it will be both in the short and long terms.
