“I always found the Fox threat a little dubious in terms of them actually being able to go toe-to-toe with ESPN. Where’s the inventory? Where’s the product?”
Those words spoken from best-selling author Jim Miller on the latest AA Podcast (listen and subscribe here!) got me thinking. The new NBA television contract with ESPN and Turner signaled the end of Fox Sports 1’s hopes to grab just a slice of the pie. Although there were rumors of FS1’s possible ability to gain a third television package, they turned out to be just that – rumors. ESPN and Turner splashed the cash to ensure their hold over NBA television rights will continue for many years to come. Fox didn’t even get a chance to negotiate with the NBA.
While Fox Sports 1 does have a decent portfolio, the extraordinary length of sports rights deals and the rapidly receding pool of entities available for bidding has put the network in a tight spot. They will be locked out of the following significant properties for a good long while…
NHL: Signed with NBC through 2020-2021
NFL: Signed with ESPN through 2021, with Fox/NBC/CBS through 2022
NCAA Tournament: Signed with CBS/Turner through 2024
NBA: Signed with ESPN/Turner through 2024-2025
College Football Playoff: Signed with ESPN through 2026
Olympics: Signed with NBC through 2032
And that’s not to mention all the major college conferences that are locked up well into the next decade and even longer. ESPN’s contract with the SEC runs through 2034. And that is not a misprint. Save from the Big Ten, there aren’t any major opportunities for FS1 to add further to their lineup.
Fox Sports 1 has not come away empty handed in recent years. They’ll be able to add more NASCAR Cup races to the FS1 schedule with their new deal. The MLB postseason has set records on the young channel. The surprising agreement with the USGA will bring golf’s US Open and other tournaments to a new home. And the biggest acquisition for Fox Sports 1’s portfolio will certainly be the 2018 and 2022 World Cups and all the programming tonnage that go with it over the next eight years.
Are those enough events to turn the tide in the favor of Fox Sports 1?
FS1’s portfolio is nothing to sneeze at… but it’s not a portfolio that will topple ESPN anytime soon.
As we discussed at length in our series on the first year of Fox Sports 1, the network’s expectations of challenging ESPN from the outset and going toe-to-toe with Bristol were folly. From the Fox perspective, Fox Sports 1 conquering the unconquerable Bristol empire was no different than their broadcast network defeating CBS, NBC, and ABC. It was no different than Fox News becoming #1 in cable news. Surely they could build Fox Sports 1 to the point where they could not just challenge, but beat ESPN head-to-head.
With the current lay of the land in sports rights, that will prove impossible to do for well into the next decade.
Fox Sports 1 has yet to crack 4 million viewers for any live programming. Their highest audience was set during this MLB postseason with 3.92 million viewers for Nationals-Giants Game 4. ESPN breaks that barrier almost every week whether it be with the NFL, college football, the NBA, or even the Little League World Series. Their coverage of Monday Night Football triples that number.
One could make a decent argument that the MLB postseason is Fox Sports 1’s premier property at the moment and will be for quite some time. If this is the best Fox Sports 1 can do with their current lineup over the next decade, the hoped-for challenge of ESPN’s throne will fail to materialize. (There’s a difference between doing “well” as a niche sports network (see: NBCSN… and yes I just used a parentheses inside a parentheses) and being the all-conquering force that was supposed to make fans tune away from ESPN in 2 or 3 years time, as Fox exec David Hill proclaimed.) It will only happen once they can consistently draw viewers to the network for must-see events that can reach huge audiences. Unless FS1 can convince the NFL to let them televise one game each Sunday or they could somehow win the Thursday Night Football package if it ever comes up for bidding again, that won’t happen for the next decade.
This is why it was required for ESPN to keep the NBA and not let Fox Sports 1 gain even a small piece of the pie. It’s equally as valuable for ESPN to televise these properties as it is to prevent Fox Sports 1 to televise them. By locking out what is seen as their main competition for the biggest sports rights over the next decade, ESPN will ensure their place at the top of the sports world is well secured. And Fox Sports 1 will have to go back to the drawing board until they can finally obtain enough major sports rights to actually do battle with Bristol.
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